铅锌日评：原料不足引发炼厂减产，铅价下方支撑较强，沪锌区间整理-20250512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the raw material shortage problem remains unsolved, with some secondary lead smelters reducing production due to insufficient raw materials. The demand is in the off - season. Cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and subsequent macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1]. - For zinc, the macro sentiment is stable and positive, but the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak. Short - term zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the medium - to - long - term, TC has room for further increase, and the center of zinc prices may shift downward. Subsequent macro sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose 0.18% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) rose 1.90% to $1,981.50 per ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased 1.69% to 8.48. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 27.04% to 28,955 lots, and the open interest decreased 2.70% to 33,454 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 253,425 tons, and the Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased 2.42% to 38,966 tons [1]. - Supply and Demand: In the week of May 9, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.35%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 37.65%, a significant decrease of 4.81 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 64.79%, an increase of 9.73 percentage points from the previous week. An enterprise in East China stopped production due to raw material shortage and loss pressure, affecting a production volume of about 200 tons per day. Another small - scale enterprise postponed its resumption plan to mid - to - late May due to poor market trends [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased 0.35% compared to the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed up 0.07%. The premium of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) rose 1.32% to $2,653.50 per ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased 1.23% to 8.36. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 36.95% to 140,017 lots, and the open interest decreased 0.61% to 119,170 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 170,325 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory decreased 7.31% to 1,903 tons [1]. - Supply and Demand: In the week of May 9, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 60.87%, an increase of 11.26 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 54.6%, an increase of 5.59 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 59.73%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points from the previous week. A Canadian mining company made important progress in financing the resumption of production of a silver - lead - zinc mine in Mexico [1].