镍周报：警惕宏观扰动，镍价震荡延续-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Global central banks have cut interest rates, while the Fed maintains its policy. The US economy shows resilience, but the labor market and re - inflation face challenges. Sino - US economic and trade talks have started, with both sides being tough before the talks [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesia has lowered the domestic nickel ore benchmark price, but the shortage persists. Philippine shipments are delayed. In April, electrolytic nickel production exceeded expectations, narrowing in May. Stainless - steel inventory is high, suppressing May production. Nickel sulfate production is increasing, and the downstream ternary product structure is shifting to high - nickel, with expected growth in new - energy consumption [3]. - Outlook: There is no obvious change expected in the fundamentals. A weakening nickel ore price may drag down the nickel price. Attention should be focused on the impact of Sino - US trade talks on macro expectations. Although refined nickel production declined in May, it remains high. Nickel sulfate demand is rising but with a limited share. High stainless - steel inventory restricts production, and the fundamentals may not improve significantly [3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data of Last Week - SHFE nickel price dropped from 124,630 yuan/ton to 123,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan/ton; LME nickel price rose from 15,698 dollars/ton to 15,804 dollars/ton, an increase of 106 dollars/ton [5]. - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,748 tons to 197,670 tons; SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 699 tons to 23,426 tons [5]. - Jinchuan nickel premium dropped from 2,400 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton; Russian nickel premium rose from 200 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton [5]. - High - nickel pig iron average price dropped from 980 yuan/nickel point to 960 yuan/nickel point; stainless - steel inventory increased from 94.3 tons to 95.1 tons [5]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore dropped from 51 dollars/wet ton to 48.5 dollars/wet ton, while the Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore domestic FOB price rose from 47.6 dollars/wet ton to 48.6 dollars/wet ton [6]. - Indonesia's May (Phase I) nickel ore domestic benchmark price is 15,049.23 dollars/wet ton, a decrease of about 3.16% from April (Phase II). The tight supply may ease with the recovery of Philippine shipments, and the ore price may decline [6]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 968.5 yuan/nickel point to 948.5 yuan/nickel point [7]. - In May, China's nickel pig iron production was 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In March, domestic nickel - iron imports were about 1.0133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60%. Indonesia's April nickel - iron production was expected to be 143,300 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.19% and a month - on - month increase of 1.19% [7]. - In May, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was expected to be about 1.78 million tons, 4 tons more than last year. As of April 30, domestic stainless - steel inventory was 573,700 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons [7]. Nickel Sulfate - Battery - grade nickel sulfate price rose from 28,080 yuan/ton to 28,115 yuan/ton; electroplating - grade nickel sulfate price remained at 30,750 yuan/ton [8]. - In May, the expected nickel metal output of nickel sulfate was about 26,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.51% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The production of ternary materials increased month - on - month, with a shift from low - nickel to high - nickel products [8]. 3. Macro and Fundamental Analysis Macro - The Fed maintained its interest rate in May. The US economy shows resilience, but there are pressures in the employment market and re - inflation. The market expects the Fed to start the first round of interest rate cuts in July [9]. - Sino - US economic and trade talks have started, and the UK - US trade agreement has been reached. Trump stated that the UK agreement is not a template, and other countries may face higher tariffs. The attitudes of both sides before the Sino - US talks are tough [9]. Fundamental - Supply - In May, domestic nickel production capacity was stable, but smelter production declined. In April, the actual output was 36,300 tons, slightly exceeding expectations. The expected output in May was 35,350 tons. In March, domestic electrolytic nickel exports were about 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53% [9]. - As of May 9, the export profit of Chinese nickel was 242.59 dollars/ton. There is no new production capacity in May, and social inventory is high. High - ice nickel has a high cost of producing electrolytic nickel and flows more to the nickel sulfate market [9]. Fundamental - Consumption - From April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate was 52.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 3.342 million, a year - on - year increase of 37% [10]. - The new - energy vehicle sales in April fluctuated greatly. The sales from April 28 - 30 increased significantly, but the consumption heat did not continue during the May Day holiday. The new - energy vehicle sales growth may decline in the future [10]. Fundamental - Inventory - The total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions was 44,088 tons, a decrease of 2,822 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory was 23,426 tons, a decrease of 699 tons, and LME nickel inventory was 197,670 tons, a decrease of 2,748 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges was 221,096 tons, a decrease of 3,447 tons [11]. 4. Industry News - An Indonesian nickel plant has resumed production after a landslide. Indonesia has lowered the domestic nickel ore benchmark price in May [13]. - Ivanhoe's subsidiary has achieved a major milestone in the Flatreef ore body. EV Nickel plans to mine 1.6 billion pounds of nickel in 20 years. First Atlantic Nickel has received a $150,000 grant [13].