Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has relaxed compared to before, but there are still many uncertainties in tariffs and concerns about the economic outlook. The supply side of the fundamentals is stable, and the orders of aluminum - processing enterprises after the holiday still show resilience, creating an expected difference from before the holiday. As the peak consumption season is approaching, the expectation of weakening consumption is strong. It is necessary to continue to monitor inventory performance, and it is expected that the upward pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2391.5 yuan/ton on April 30, 2025, to 2418 yuan/ton on May 9, 2025, up 26.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 19830 dollars/ton to 19445 dollars/ton, down 385 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio dropped from 8.3 to 8.0, a decrease of 0.3. The LME spot premium rose from - 27.81 dollars/ton to - 9.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.4 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 415575 tons to 403550 tons, a decrease of 12025 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 72590 tons to 65013 tons, a decrease of 7577 tons. The spot Yangtze River average price decreased from 20006.66667 yuan/ton to 19665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 341.7 yuan/ton. The spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The South China Storage spot average price decreased from 19936.66667 yuan/ton to 19620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 316.7 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 70 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 61.4 tons to 62 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased from 16365.01 yuan/ton to 16276.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.5 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased from 3641.66 yuan/ton to 3388.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 253.2 yuan/ton [3] 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared to last week; the weekly average price of South China Storage spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared to last week. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. Traders still expect three interest rate cuts this year. The UK and the US reached a partial agreement on tariff trade terms. Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10th to 11th. The EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros worth of US goods. The domestic central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The domestic downstream aluminum - processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9% compared to last week, with different performances among sectors. Primary aluminum alloy, industrial profiles, and cables performed well, while other sectors were weak. According to the current order situation, the operating rate of aluminum - processing enterprises is expected to remain stable next week [4] 3. Market Outlook - The macro - environment has relaxed compared to before, but there are still many uncertainties in tariffs and concerns about the economic outlook. The supply side of the fundamentals is stable, and the orders of aluminum - processing enterprises after the holiday still show resilience, creating an expected difference from before the holiday. As the peak consumption season is approaching, the expectation of weakening consumption is strong. It is necessary to continue to monitor inventory performance, and it is expected that the upward pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase [7] 4. Industry News - The US vice - president said that negotiations with the EU are ongoing, hoping for the opening of the European market to US goods. The EU trade commissioner said that if the negotiations fail, the EU will announce details of the next counter - measures against US tariffs on Thursday. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association said that although copper, aluminum, and gold are on the exemption list, the US has imposed an additional 20% tariff on all imported products from China this year, raising the "301" and "232" tariffs on aluminum products from 10% to 25% and initiating a "232" investigation on copper. Since the Sino - US trade frictions in 2018 - 2019, China's exports of non - ferrous metal products to the US have dropped significantly. Alcoa's San Ciprián plant was affected by a large - scale power outage in Spain, and the company is assessing the full extent of the operational and financial impacts [8] 5. Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of material trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]
铝周报：关注库存表现，铝价震荡-20250512
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-12 05:23