油脂周报：基本面差别，油脂走势分化-20250512

Report Summary - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: This week, the futures prices of edible oils showed a divergent trend. As the palm oil main - producing areas enter the peak production period, the inventory will significantly increase in the coming months, and the palm oil price at the origin is expected to continue to be under pressure. The increasing supply pressure is pushing the palm oil price center of gravity to decline continuously. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for palm oil at the origin is intensifying. The re - allocation of arbitrage funds temporarily eases the weakness of soybean oil and rapeseed oil and promotes the return of the price difference between edible oils to a normal level. With the arrival of the off - season for domestic edible oil demand and the successive arrival of imported soybeans, the factory operating rate will further increase, and the soybean oil inventory will enter the accumulation stage. In addition, factors such as the promotion of biodiesel policies and changes in the international trade situation will also affect the edible oil market. It is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely [9][31]. Market Data Summary Spot Analysis - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,372 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton month - on - month. It was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. Other Data - As of May 2, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 711,000 tons. On May 7, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 332,000 tons [17]. - As of May 8, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,207,280 tons [20]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 664 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [22]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 145 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.66% to close at 7,780 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 3.22% to close at 7,886 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.62% to close at 9,355 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In terms of palm oil, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) showed that from April 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 24.62% month - on - month. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported a 17.03% month - on - month increase for the same period, and its data showed a 60.17% month - on - month increase in palm oil production from May 1 - 5. The palm oil production at the origin showed a strong upward trend, and the Malaysian palm oil price fell 1.68% [7][30]. - In terms of soybean oil, as of the week of May 4, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, compared with 24% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 23%. The U.S. soybean emergence rate was 7%, compared with 8% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 5%. Overall, the start of the U.S. soybean season was normal, and the U.S. soybean price fell 0.57% this week [7][30].