Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - May 12, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 8.25 to close at 1052.25 cents per bushel, a 0.79% increase; the September soybean meal contract fell 21 to close at 2899 yuan per ton, a 0.72% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 480 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 13.26% decrease; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 15 to close at 2551 yuan per ton, a 0.59% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 10 to 2430 yuan per ton, a 0.41% decrease [4][7]. - The fast sowing progress of US soybeans is conducive to the expectation of increased production, and there is no driving force in the weather market, so US soybeans continue to fluctuate. After the holiday, the soybean customs clearance process improved, the oil mill operating rate increased significantly, the soybean meal inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply is expected to increase; the spot price dropped significantly, the feed enterprise inventory is at a low level in the same period, the提货 rhythm accelerated, and the post - holiday restocking transactions increased significantly. Although the China - US economic and trade negotiations have made substantial progress, factors such as the weather theme to be fermented and the expected tightening of the new - season balance sheet form support below, showing a weak and narrow - range fluctuation [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the weather in the US soybean production areas will be good, which helps to maintain a fast sowing progress. At the same time, pay attention to the release of the May USDA report, and US soybeans may continue to fluctuate. In April, due to the impact of customs clearance policies, the soybean arrival volume was lower than expected, and the delayed part may be cleared in May. The domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to further increase, the soybean meal inventory will stop falling and rebound, and the supply will become more abundant; the China - US economic and trade negotiations have initially reached a consensus, pay attention to the subsequent process, but US soybeans generally show resistance to decline in the weather market, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate weakly [4][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 8.25 to 1052.25 cents per bushel, a 0.79% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans fell 7 to 433 dollars per ton, a 1.59% decrease; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 2 to 453 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 20 to 75.66 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal contract fell 21 to 2899 yuan per ton, a 0.72% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal contract rose 15 to 2551 yuan per ton, a 0.59% increase; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 36 to 348 yuan per ton; the East China spot price fell 200 to 3200 yuan per ton, a 5.88% decrease; the South China spot price fell 480 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 13.26% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 459 to 241 yuan per ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 30%, the market expected 31%, the previous week was 18%, and the same period last year was 23%; the soybean emergence rate was 7%, the same period last year was 8%, and the five - year average was 5%. As of the week of May 6, about 15% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 11% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 40 - 50mm, slightly lower than the average level, which is conducive to sowing, and the temperature is generally higher than normal, and the fast sowing progress is conducive to the expectation of increased production [8]. - As of the week of May 1, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 37.7 tons, the previous week was 42.8 tons, the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4772 tons, the sales progress was 96.1%, and the same period last year was 4234 tons; in that week, the net sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were almost zero, and the cumulative purchase volume of China in the current year was 2248 tons [8]. - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.75 dollars per bushel, the previous week was 1.92 dollars per bushel, lower than 3.29 dollars per bushel in the same period in 2023; the truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 49.03 cents per pound, the previous week was 49.32 cents per pound; the price of 48% protein soybean meal in Illinois soybean processing plants was 287.08 dollars per short ton, the previous week was 289 dollars per short ton; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.71 dollars per bushel, the previous week was 10.62 dollars per bushel [9]. - According to Conab data, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 97.7%, the previous week was 94.8%, the same period last year was 94.3%, and the five - year average was 96.3%, and the harvesting work was basically completed. The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) expects that the Brazilian soybean exports in May will reach 12.6 million tons, and the same period last year was 13.47 million tons [9]. - As of the week of May 7, 2025, the soybean harvesting progress in Argentina was 44.9%, lower than 47% in the same period last year, but the progress has accelerated significantly due to less precipitation. According to the crop weekly report of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine producers have harvested half of the early - sown soybeans, and the yields in the core agricultural areas and Cordoba Province are higher than expected [10]. - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 4.7464 million tons, an increase of 151,600 tons from the previous week and 556,300 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 82,100 tons, an increase of 7300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 443,000 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.3008 million tons, an increase of 1.7473 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 475,100 tons from the same period last year; the national port soybean inventory was 5.532 million tons, an increase of 329,200 tons from the previous week and 83,500 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the national daily average soybean meal transaction volume was 264,600 tons, of which the spot transaction was 49,650 tons and the forward transaction was 214,950 tons, and the daily average total transaction volume in the week before the holiday was 25,300 tons; the daily average soybean meal提货 volume was 151,000 tons, and the previous week was 137,500 tons; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.846 million tons, and the previous week was 1.523 million tons; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 4.45 days, and the previous week was 5.04 days [11]. 3. Industry News - Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area in the main planting areas by about 500,000 hectares in the 2025/2026 season starting in September. In the current season, Brazilian farmers planted a record 47.8 million hectares of soybeans and harvested 172.1 million tons [12]. - From April 28 to May 2, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state was 623.09 reais per ton, and the previous week was 643.31 reais per ton. In that week, the soybean meal price in the state was 1691.22 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5806.38 reais per ton [13]. - Analysts predict that the US soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 4.338 billion bushels, the estimated range is between 4.3 - 4.4 billion bushels, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast is 4.37 billion bushels; the US soybean yield per acre in the 2025/2026 season will be 52.5 bushels, the estimated range is between 51.9 - 53.5 bushels per acre, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast is 52.5 bushels per acre; the US soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 362 million bushels, the estimated range is between 267 - 675 million bushels; the global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 126.02 million tons, the estimated range is between 120.74 - 137 million tons [13]. - The soybean exports of Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season will decrease by 4% compared with the previous season. It is expected to export 29.8 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 180,000 tons from the previous monthly forecast, reflecting the increase in Chinese demand. It is expected that the demand for soybeans in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season will reach nearly 13.1 million tons, a 1.1% increase from the 2024/2025 season. The demand for soybeans from other regions of Brazil in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season is expected to decrease by 22% to 4.5 million tons compared with the 2024/2025 season [14]. - The Canadian rapeseed production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 18.2 million tons, the estimated range is 16.5 - 20.1 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year. The total planting area is expected to be 8.59 million hectares, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year. The soil moisture in the main production areas in south - western Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba has been at the lowest level in six years since February, while the soil moisture in Alberta is still relatively healthy. The summer weather outlook shows that from June to August, the temperature will be higher than normal and the rainfall in the southern prairie will be lower than normal, which may put downward pressure on yields [14]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the forecast of the 2024/2025 soybean harvest from 48.6 million tons to 50 million tons, saying that the yield is better than expected. Argentine producers have harvested half of the early - sown soybeans, and the yields in the core agricultural areas and Cordoba Province are higher than expected [15]. - The commercial sales of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season have reached 57% of the expected output, which is delayed compared with the same period last year and the historical average. Compared with last month, the soybean sales in Brazil increased by 6.3 percentage points. In the same period last year, the soybean sales completed 64.6% of the expected output, and the five - year average was even higher at 70.3%. Considering that the company has estimated the soybean output to reach a record 172.45 million tons, the soybean sales in the country have reached 97.88 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, the Brazilian soybean sales volume has reached 7.9% of the expected output of 182.57 million tons, about 14.35 million tons. Although the sales have improved, they are still lower than 9.9% in the same period last year and far lower than the historical average of 17.2% [15]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the M 9 - 1 month - to - month difference of soybean meal, the management fund CBOT net position, the regional soybean meal spot price, the precipitation and temperature in US soybean production areas, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean weekly net sales volume, the US soybean cumulative export sales volume to the world and China, the US soybean weekly export volume and weekly net sales volume to China, the US oil mill crushing profit, the soybean meal weekly average daily transaction volume and提货 volume, the port and oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume and operating rate, the oil mill soybean meal inventory, and the feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [16][17][18][21][23][25][29][31][32][36][38][39][40][43][45][46][47][48].
豆粕周报：静待USDA报告发布，连粕或弱势震荡-20250512
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-12 05:23