Classification 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Classification 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated and converged. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, China released a package of financial policies, and partial progress was made on Trump's tariffs, easing market sentiment [3][6][7]. - Fundamentally, due to tariffs, lead ore raw materials remained tight, and domestic and foreign processing fees were stable at low levels. Primary lead smelters had a mix of production cuts and restarts. Shandong Hengbang started a one - month production cut at the beginning of the month, and Guangxi Southern will resume production in mid - May. The discount of spot quotes widened, and smelters were not keen to sell. The supply - demand structural contradiction of waste batteries was prominent. Secondary lead smelters suffered losses of 600 - 800 yuan/ton, and more smelters cut or extended production cuts, resulting in a continuous decline in supply [3][6]. - In terms of demand, battery consumption remained in the off - season. Enterprises faced high inventory pressure, raw material inventories were not digested, and the motivation for restocking after the holiday was insufficient, with demand mainly for rigid needs [3][6][7]. - Overall, tariff concerns eased, and market risk appetite recovered. The fundamentals remained weak in both supply and demand. The structural contradiction in raw material supply would exist in the medium - to - long term. The scope of production cuts by secondary lead smelters expanded, and primary lead smelters also carried out maintenance, showing a trend of shrinking supply. However, consumption continued in the off - season, and the high basis between futures and spot prices strengthened the expectation of inventory increase driven by warehouse receipts, dragging down the lead price. The game between cost and consumption continued, and it was expected that the lead price would continue to fluctuate [3][7] Classification 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | May 1 | May 9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16840 | 16805 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1957 | 1985.5 | 28.5 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.61 | 8.46 | - 0.14 | | | SHFE Inventory | 46786 | 49504 | 2718 | tons | | LME Inventory | 264225 | 253425 | - 10800 | tons | | Social Inventory | 4.53 | 4.75 | 0.22 | ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 75 | - 90 | - 15 | yuan/ton | [4] 2. Market Review - After the May Day holiday, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated and converged, closing at 16805 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.21%. It fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME lead fluctuated, showing a pattern of first falling and then rising, closing at 1985.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 2.8% [5]. - In the spot market, as of May 9, the price of Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was 16750 - 16780 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of Jiangtong and Jinde lead was reported at 16730 - 16780 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2505 or 2506 contract. Shanghai lead remained in a consolidation state. Sellers sold goods according to the market, and the discount of some quotes widened. The ex - factory quotes of smelters' direct sales sources were at a discount of 125 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. Secondary lead smelters reduced sales. Some secondary refined lead quotes were at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises only made rigid - need purchases and bargained a lot. Some goods with expanded discounts were traded [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 9, the LME weekly inventory was 253425 tons, a weekly decrease of 10800 tons. The SHFE inventory was 49504 tons, an increase of 2718 tons from last week. As of May 8, the SMM five - region social inventory was 4.75 ten thousand tons, an increase of 0.22 ten thousand tons from April 30 and an increase of 0.16 ten thousand tons from May 6. After the holiday, downstream enterprises were more watchful, making rigid - need purchases and unable to quickly digest the lead ingot inventory accumulated during the holiday. At the same time, the basis between futures and spot prices widened to 120 - 220 yuan/ton, increasing the willingness of sellers to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory of deliverable brands transferred from factory warehouses to delivery warehouses, and the social inventory of lead ingots rose again, with the expectation of further increase [6] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 9, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous week [8]. - A medium - sized lead smelter in North China is expected to conduct annual routine maintenance in early June for about 35 days, which is expected to affect lead production by 9500 tons and silver production by about 10 tons. A large secondary lead smelter in East China has been unstable in production due to losses. Its production dropped to about 100 tons/day before the May Day holiday and has now completely stopped production, with the resumption date to be determined. According to a large battery group's secondary lead smelter, the arrival of waste lead - acid batteries is poor, and tight raw material inventory may lead to a production cut in mid - May. A small secondary lead smelter in South China plans to start a shutdown for maintenance this weekend due to exhausted raw material inventory and serious losses, affecting production by about 70 tons/day [8]. - Foreign media reported that Teck Resources is considering diverting the products of its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska from the Chinese market to other regions to avoid tariff risks caused by the China - US trade war. The mine's output accounts for about 5% of the global zinc supply and 2.5% of the lead supply. Currently, more than 20% of its zinc concentrates are sold to China [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][12]
铅周报：供需双弱不变，铅价延续震荡-20250512
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-12 05:28