国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250512

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. Core Views - Gold: Progress in Sino-US trade [2][4] - Silver: Oscillate and decline [2][4] - Copper: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][10] - Aluminum: Marginal weakening [2][13] - Alumina: Supply-demand pattern remains unchanged [2][13] - Zinc: Excess in the long - term, price under pressure [2][16] - Lead: Weak supply and demand, range - bound oscillation [2][19] - Tin: Narrow - range oscillation [2][22] Summary by Commodity Gold - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 786.32 with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the night - session closing price was 790.74 with a night - session increase of 0.33%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2 to 937.94. The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 1,590 to 17,238 kilograms [5]. - News: Sino - US economic and trade leaders reached an important consensus, and the talks made substantial progress. China's April CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year, the same as last month, and the PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 2.7% [5][7][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [8] Silver - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 8168 with a daily increase of 0.90%, and the night - session closing price was 8221.00 with a night - session increase of 0.88%. The SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 62 to 14,020.96 [5]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [8] Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 77,450 with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the night - session closing price was 77780 with a night - session increase of 0.43%. The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 375 to 19,165, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 2,500 to 191,775 [10]. - News: China's central bank's Q1 monetary policy report emphasized dual - function of monetary policy tools. Chile's April copper exports were worth $4.52 billion, up 8.2% year - on - year. In April 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 438,000 tons, the same as last year [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [12] Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 19585, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2418. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - Alumina Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2827. The average domestic alumina price was 2907 [13]. - News: Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks reached an important consensus and made substantial progress [13][15]. - Trend Intensity: Both aluminum and alumina are 0 [15] Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22190 with a daily increase of 0.07%. The LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2655.5 with a daily increase of 0.74%. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 150 to 1903 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 325 to 170325 tons [16]. - News: China's central bank's Q1 monetary policy report focused on monetary policy functions [17]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [17] Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16805 with a daily increase of 0.18%. The LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1985.5 with a daily increase of 1.69%. The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 965 to 38966 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1725 to 253425 tons [19]. - News: China's central bank's Q1 monetary policy report focused on monetary policy functions [20]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [20] Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 259,540 with a daily decline of 0.74%, and the night - session closing price was 261,650 with a night - session increase of 0.30%. The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 68 to 8402 [23]. - News: Sino - US economic and trade leaders reached an important consensus, and the talks made substantial progress. China's April CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year, the same as last month, and the PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 2.7% [24]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [26]