Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate within a wide range, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract likely to remain around the 20,000 level in the short term. The market anticipates that the US may choose to ease policies and tariff confrontation with China before the US debt matures in June, which will limit the downside of aluminum prices. However, the transmission of domestic favorable policies takes time, and the market has strong expectations of weakening demand due to the change of seasons, the end of PV rush installation, and the decline in export orders, which will reduce the upward momentum of aluminum prices [5][13]. - The supply of bauxite is expected to increase in May, and the market may achieve a re - balance of supply and demand after July, with the price center expected to stabilize in the range of $70 - 75 per dry ton. The alumina market has a shortage due to maintenance, and the spot supply is tight, with a possible increase in spot prices in the future. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss, but the export volume is expected to gradually recover [10]. - The operating rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show a differentiated pattern. The overall operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to rise slightly next week. The inventory of aluminum ingots may continue to rise in May, while the destocking speed of aluminum rods has significantly narrowed [12][25][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 19,000 - 21,000. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract may have a slight rebound next week and generally remain around the 20,000 level [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: It was expected that Shanghai Aluminum would remain around the 20,000 level, and it was recommended to wait and see [7]. - This week's strategy: It is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract is temporarily seen in the range of 19,500 - 20,000, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - The supply of domestic bauxite has slightly improved compared with the previous period, and the overall supply of imported bauxite can basically meet the downstream demand. The bauxite supply is expected to continue to increase in May, and the market may achieve supply - demand re - balance after July, with the price center stabilizing at $70 - 75 per dry ton [10]. Alumina Market - As of May 8, the built - in alumina production capacity in China was 110.6 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.25%. Due to maintenance and production cuts of alumina enterprises, the market spot supply is tight, and there may be a rise in spot prices [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.835 million tons, remaining stable compared with last week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,500 yuan per ton, showing a slight expansion in the past two weeks. The export volume in May is expected to decline month - on - month, but it is expected to gradually recover through supply chain reconstruction and tariff cost sharing mechanisms [10]. Demand - The operating rates of different downstream sectors show a differentiated pattern. The operating rate of profiles decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%; the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased; the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 55.2%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum increased by 2.5 percentage points to 55.0% [12]. Inventory - The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, an increase of about 1% compared with last week and about 20% lower than the same period last year. The inventory may continue to rise in May. The inventory of aluminum rods is 150,100 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and about 27% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been falling slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990, but there may be an inflection point [12]. Profit and Market Expectation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan per ton, and the profit is about 300 yuan per ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,500 yuan per ton. The aluminum price is expected to rise slightly next week, with an average price of about 19,700 [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of most aluminum - related products have changed. For example, the price of bauxite has generally declined, the price of alumina in Henan has increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has decreased [14]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for the fourth consecutive week, the alumina inventory has slightly decreased, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly [16][18]. Supply - Demand Situation - The profits of domestic alumina and electrolytic aluminum industries this week are about 300 yuan per ton and 2,500 yuan per ton respectively. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,500 yuan per ton [20]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%, showing a differentiated pattern. The operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [25][26]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum futures is neutral. The market is bearish on the demand in the second and third quarters but expects a rebound in demand at the end of the year [32]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $9.4 per ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a discount of 0 yuan per ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 3,190 yuan per ton [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of LME aluminum has slightly rebounded, and the short - term overseas aluminum price is under pressure. The net long position of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum has also slightly increased, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile [40][43].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250512
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-12 05:49