Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks from May 10th to 11th in Geneva were candid, in - depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and making substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [8]. - The bond market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state. Interest - rate bonds still have allocation value, but it is difficult to obtain capital gains through trading [9][10]. - The nickel market may see short - term news - driven market sentiment fluctuations, and the price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. The stainless - steel market's social inventory is marginally increasing, and the price is supported by the expected cost on the market [11][42]. - The stock index futures market is expected to be in a strong state with an optimistic sentiment. However, the overall negotiation process is expected to continue, and continuous attention and tracking are needed [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Futures - The bond market maintained a high - level oscillation last week, in line with the previous view. A series of policies were introduced on May 7th, including a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1% reduction in the 7 - day reverse - repurchase rate, which will drive the subsequent decline of LPR. The interest - rate curve has become steeper. Although the April import and export data were better than expected overall, domestic demand pressure still exists, and there is significant growth pressure in the second quarter. The Sino - US high - level consultations have begun, and it is expected that the negotiations will take several rounds and a long time. The first - round high - level contact may be smoother than expected, affecting market risk appetite. The inflation in the second quarter does not have a basis for upward movement. Interest - rate bonds still have allocation value, but it is difficult to obtain capital gains through trading [9][10]. Nickel - On May 9th, there was news that the Philippine government plans to impose a nickel - ore export ban from June 2025, which may increase market concerns. However, it is not advisable to over - hype the impact of this event for the time being, and the actual policy situation in June should be dynamically tracked. In terms of market sentiment, the news may weaken the confidence of short - sellers. In terms of fundamentals, the short - term inventory accumulation in the smelting end is less than expected, with a marginal slight inventory reduction, and the cost of integrated pyrometallurgy is pushed up at the ore end, providing support for the nickel price. However, the negative feedback and production cuts in the stainless - steel market suppress the nickel - iron price, and the nickel - iron inventory is accumulating again, with the transaction price falling to 940 yuan/nickel. From the perspective of conversion economics, the path to high - grade nickel matte is expected to gradually open, which may drag down the upper - end valuation of refined nickel. Therefore, the short - term news may disrupt market sentiment, and the price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation [11]. Stock Index Futures - On the morning of the report day, the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks announced substantial progress and reached important consensus. Subsequently, the price of gold dropped significantly, and US stock index futures rose by more than 1%. Before the details of the joint statement are released, the market is expected to remain strong. Although the start is better than expected, the overall negotiation process is expected to continue. Recently, with the positive expectation of trade negotiations, most global stock indexes have recovered the gaps caused by reciprocal tariffs, and the German stock index has even hit a record high. The domestic market is also strong, supported by the government's high - level attention to economic work and a firm attitude towards maintaining the stability of the capital market, which has improved investors' risk appetite. However, after the stock prices recovered the gaps in the past month, continuous policy support, unexpected economic resilience, and effective progress in trade negotiations are needed for the market to continue rising [12]. Other Commodities - Gold: Sino - US trade has made progress [15]. - Silver: Oscillating and falling [15]. - Copper: Reduced inventory supports the price. The inventory of Shanghai copper and LME copper decreased, and the export volume of Chilean copper in April increased year - on - year [25]. - Aluminum: Marginally weakening. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract and LME aluminum 3M decreased, and the inventory of LME aluminum decreased [28]. - Alumina: The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. The price and inventory of the Shanghai alumina main contract changed little [28]. - Zinc: There is an oversupply in the long - term, and the price is under pressure. The prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and LME zinc increased slightly, but the long - term supply pressure exists [31]. - Lead: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating within a range. The prices of the Shanghai lead main contract and LME lead increased slightly, and the supply - demand situation is weak [34]. - Tin: Narrow - range oscillation. The prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin decreased slightly, and the market is in a narrow - range oscillation [37]. - Stainless Steel: The social inventory is marginally increasing, and the price is supported by the expected cost on the market. The price of the stainless - steel main contract increased slightly, and the social inventory is increasing [42]. - Carbonate Lithium: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating weakly. The price of the carbonate - lithium main contract decreased, and the supply - demand situation is weak [45]. - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. The price of industrial - silicon futures decreased, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [48]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation on the day. The price of polysilicon futures increased, and the market is waiting for new information [49]. - Iron Ore: The expectations are fluctuating, and the price is oscillating in a wide range. The price of iron - ore futures increased slightly, and the market expectations are unstable [52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The demand expectations are poor, and the weakness continues. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased, and the demand is weak [56]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation. The prices of silicon - ferrosilicon and manganese - ferrosilicon futures changed little, and the market is in a wide - range oscillation [60]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The expectations for coke are rising, and the price is oscillating weakly; coking coal is oscillating weakly. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures decreased, and the market is weak [63]. - Steam Coal: The coal - mine inventory is increasing, and the price is oscillating weakly. The price of steam - coal futures decreased, and the inventory is increasing [67]. - Log: Oscillating repeatedly. The price of log futures changed little, and the market is oscillating [70]. - Para - Xylene: A unilateral oscillating market, and close the long spread position. The price of para - xylene futures increased, and the market is in an oscillating state [75]. - PTA: Close the long spread position, and go long on PX and short on PTA. The price of PTA futures increased, and the supply - demand situation is changing [75]. - MEG: Go long on PTA and short on MEG. The price of MEG futures decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation is not good [75]. - Rubber: Oscillating. The price of rubber futures decreased, and the market is in an oscillating state [80]. - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating with support. The price of synthetic - rubber futures increased, and the market has some support [85]. - Asphalt: Oscillating within a range following the crude - oil price. The price of asphalt futures increased, and the market is following the crude - oil trend [88]. - LLDPE: There is still pressure in the later period. The price of LLDPE futures decreased, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [100]. - PP: The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume is average. The price of PP futures decreased, and the market trading is average [105]. - Caustic Soda: Oscillating in the short term, and there is still pressure in the later period. The price of caustic - soda futures changed little, and the supply - demand situation is complex [108]. - Pulp: Oscillating. The price of pulp futures increased slightly, and the market is in an oscillating state [112]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures decreased, and the market price is stable [117]. - Methanol: Oscillating. The price of methanol futures changed little, and the market is in an oscillating state [120]. - Urea: Running strongly. The price of urea futures increased, and the market is strong [125]. - Styrene: Oscillating weakly. The price of styrene futures increased, but the market is weak [129]. - Soda Ash: The spot - market situation has changed little. The price of soda - ash futures decreased, and the spot market is stable [132]. - LPG: The tariff concerns are alleviated, and the domestic valuation is under pressure. The price of LPG futures decreased, and the market is affected by tariff factors [136]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly. The price of PVC futures decreased, and the supply - demand situation is not good [147]. - Fuel Oil: Oscillating strongly, and there is still a short - term rebound trend. The price of fuel - oil futures increased, and the market has a rebound trend [150]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Narrow - range adjustment, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas market has temporarily decreased slightly. The price of low - sulfur fuel - oil futures increased, and the market is in a narrow - range adjustment [150]. - Container Freight Index (European Route): The Sino - US tariff is easing, and the near - month contracts are short - term strong; hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread position lightly. The price of the container - freight - index (European - route) futures changed, and the market is affected by tariff and supply - demand factors [152]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: Short - term oscillating markets, and pay attention to going long on PF and short on PR. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures increased, and the market is in an oscillating state [161]. - Palm Oil: The pressure is released periodically, and there may be support at the bottom. The price of palm - oil futures decreased slightly, and the market may have support [164]. - Soybean Oil: Oscillating to find the bottom, and remaining strong among varieties. The price of soybean - oil futures increased slightly, and the market is in the process of finding the bottom [164]. - Soybean Meal: Weak in the short term, waiting for the May USDA supply - demand report. The price of soybean - meal futures decreased, and the market is waiting for new information [169]. - Soybean: Oscillating weakly. The price of soybean futures decreased, and the market is weak [169]. - Corn: Oscillating strongly. The price of corn futures increased, and the market is strong [172]. - Sugar: Stabilizing periodically. The price of sugar futures increased, and the market is stabilizing [177]. - Cotton: Maintaining an oscillating trend. The price of cotton futures increased slightly, and the market is oscillating [181]. - Egg: Oscillating and adjusting. The price of egg futures increased, and the market is in an adjustment state [187]. - Live Pig: The near - term contradictions are not obvious. The price of live - pig futures changed little, and the near - term contradictions are not prominent [189]. - Peanut: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills. The price of peanut futures changed little, and the market is affected by the purchases of oil mills [194].
中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质性进展
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-12 05:42