等待25年火电四大主线发酵

Investment Rating - The report rates the thermal power sector as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - Thermal power remains the most promising yet controversial sector, with significant market performance observed in the week of May 5-9, 2025, including Huaneng Power International up by 4% and Longyuan Power up by 6.3% [4] - Despite a significant decline in thermal power output in Q1, fixed costs per unit remained stable due to lower interest rates and enhanced cost control measures [4] - The report anticipates four new characteristics for the power industry in 2025: 1. Electricity prices exceeding expectations; 2. Coal prices exceeding expectations; 3. Fixed costs exceeding expectations; 4. State-owned enterprise reform and market capitalization management exceeding expectations [4] - China's Q1 electricity elasticity coefficient is reported at 0.46%, but it is expected to exceed 1 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in electricity demand relative to GDP growth [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The power sector showed strong performance in early May 2025, with notable increases in stock prices for major companies [4] Cost Dynamics - Q1 thermal power output saw a significant decline, but fixed costs per unit remained stable, attributed to lower interest rates and improved cost management [4] Future Expectations - The report outlines expectations for 2025, highlighting potential increases in electricity and coal prices, as well as fixed costs, alongside anticipated reforms in state-owned enterprises [4] Auxiliary Services - The introduction of the "Basic Rules for Power Auxiliary Service Market" is expected to enhance the value of thermal and hydropower sources, promoting a shift from policy-driven to market-driven development [4]