研究所晨会观点精萃-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The substantial progress of the China-US trade talks has boosted the overall global risk appetite, and the domestic risk appetite is also expected to be favorably affected in the short term. For assets, the stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are expected to be weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are expected to oscillate, and all are under cautious observation [3]. - The demand for steel is expected to be weak, and the prices of steel futures and spot have widened their decline. The prices of ferrous alloys are expected to oscillate within a range. The prices of energy - chemical products have rebounded slightly due to the China - US trade talks, but there are still long - term downward pressures. Non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, and the short - term trends are affected by the China - US talks and other factors [6][9][13]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - Macro: Overseas, the China - US trade talks ended positively, and details will be announced on Monday. Domestically, China's exports in April exceeded expectations, and the China - US high - level talks in Switzerland achieved substantial progress. The stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are oscillating, all under cautious observation [3]. - Stock Index: Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and software development, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The China - US talks and loose monetary policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - Precious Metals: The precious metals market oscillated last week. Economic data shows resilience, and the market is re - pricing the Fed's policy path. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is under short - term observation [4][5]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel futures and spot markets were weak last Friday. In May, it enters the off - season for steel demand. The apparent consumption of 5 major steel products decreased, and inventory started to rise. The supply also decreased slightly. Short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - Iron Ore: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Steel demand has weakened, and although the iron - water output is still high, it is not supported by demand. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron): The price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly, and that of silicon iron declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemicals - Crude Oil: The China - US talks and domestic policy stimuli have improved the macro - sentiment, and oil prices have rebounded. However, the long - term downward path has been established, and the oil price will be under pressure in the later period but will continue to have high volatility in the short term [9]. - Asphalt: The absolute price of asphalt has rebounded due to the progress of the trade agreement. The inventory removal has stagnated, the supply is low, and the demand has been slightly boosted. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [9]. - PX: PX has many self - maintenance periods and follows the polyester chain to rise. It will continue to be in short supply in the later period and will maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - PTA: The downstream demand for PTA exists in the short term, but there are limitations to its long - term upward space. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory removal is postponed. It will continue to oscillate [10]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream processing profit of short - fiber is decreasing, and there is a risk of a decline in the high - operating rate. It will maintain a high - level range oscillation [10]. - Methanol: The inventory of methanol has increased, and the supply pressure is prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and has downward pressure in the long term [11]. - PP: The supply pressure of PP has been relieved, but the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [11]. - LLDPE: The downstream of LLDPE is basically stable, and the supply has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday and requires cautious observation [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The China - US talks may boost the market sentiment in the short term. The copper price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for short positions can be sought in the medium term [13]. - Aluminum: The trade agreement between the US and the UK has a short - term positive impact on the market sentiment. The aluminum price rebound is approaching the end. Short - term long positions should be gradually liquidated, and short - position opportunities can be sought after the situation becomes clear [13]. - Tin: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, affected by the China - US talks, the resumption of production in Wa State, and the weakening demand [14].