Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market situation is complex, affected by macro - policies, international trade (especially tariff policies), and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different asset classes show different trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the stock index market, it is recommended to buy certain index futures on dips; in the bond market, a cautious strategy is suggested for long - term bonds, while short - term bonds may have better performance; in the commodity market, various commodities have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][6]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in major indices, with a decrease in trading volume. Macro news includes CPI and PPI data, and trade data. The liquidity is relatively loose. Due to the weakening of the emotional impact of tariff policies and the potential for domestic policy adjustment, it is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips, or buy IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically. The unilateral strategy is to buy IF index futures on dips [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bonds: After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy exceeding expectations at the press conference, the long - term interest rate has already priced in the interest rate cut expectation, so a cautious strategy is recommended in the short term. The short - term bonds are expected to be more cost - effective. The long - term trend depends on the fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to the tariff negotiation process and economic data [5][6]. - Precious Metals: In the short term, precious metal prices are driven to be weak by the macro - environment and capital positions. However, considering the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year and the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, gold prices are expected to rise in the medium term after a short - term correction, and silver prices may show a strong performance when the Fed's easing expectations are concentrated. It is recommended to wait for a significant correction in gold prices and then buy long positions, and to wait and see or short on rallies for silver [7][8][9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is expected to face greater pressure for shock adjustment due to the uncertain result of Sino - US trade negotiations, the tight supply of copper ore and recycled copper, and the marginal weakening of consumption [11]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. Although the domestic policy exceeds expectations, the bearish atmosphere in the commodity market continues, and the consumption is marginally weakening. However, the improvement in downstream demand after the short - term price correction provides strong support [12]. - Zinc: In the short term, the near - end is relatively strong, but in the medium term, due to the limited downstream purchasing sustainability and the pressure of imported zinc ingots, the zinc price may decline [13][14]. - Lead: The Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate in a box in the medium term, and the short - term price shows a weak shock [15]. - Nickel: The continuous weakness of the nickel - iron price is the main driver for the decline of the nickel price. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to range from 115,000 to 130,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Tin: The supply of tin is expected to loosen, and with the impact of tariffs on demand, the tin price may decline. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term fundamentals lack positive drivers, and the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the operating disturbances of mines and salt factories, the price trend of lithium concentrate, and demand performance [18]. - Alumina: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, the supply surplus trend is difficult to change, and attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread opportunity [19]. - Stainless Steel: The supply is at a high level, the market has large inventory pressure, and the supply - demand imbalance brings downward pressure on the price [20]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The traditional peak season is over, the demand for finished steel products has shifted downward, and the price may maintain a weak shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policy changes, terminal demand trends, and cost support [22][23]. - Iron Ore: The supply of iron ore has a slight decline in shipping volume, and the demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main 09 contract may still be weak [24]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass price is weak, with inventory accumulation. The soda ash supply is at a high level with a slight decline, and the price is expected to be weak [25][26]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: For manganese silicon, the price may stop falling and enter a shock stage, and it is recommended to wait and see. For ferrosilicon, the price may continue to decline, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended [27][28]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply of industrial silicon is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend [33]. Energy and Chemicals - Rubber: The rubber price returns to range - bound. The implementation of Thailand's policy to postpone rubber tapping is the focus of the market. There are different views on the rise and fall of the price. It is recommended to adopt a neutral and short - term trading strategy [36][37][39]. - Crude Oil: In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been realized as expected. In the context of low inventory, buying on dips and short - term positive spread is a good position [40]. - Methanol: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [41]. - Urea: The price of urea is expected to be relatively strong, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to take partial profit on previous long positions and wait and see for new positions [42]. - Styrene: The price of styrene is under pressure, but the low port inventory may limit the decline. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - PVC: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [44]. - Ethylene Glycol: The industry is in a short - term de - stocking stage, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium term. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips when the port de - stocking is realized [45]. - PTA and p - Xylene: Both are in the maintenance season. There is a risk of negative feedback in the medium term, but the short - term valuation is supported. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive spread [46][47]. - Polyethylene and Polypropylene: The price of polyethylene is expected to fluctuate. The price of polypropylene is expected to be weakly volatile in May [48][49]. Agricultural Products - Pig: The short - term pig price may be adjusted slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by emotions such as hoarding and second - fattening [51]. - Egg: The egg price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [52]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The soybean and soybean meal in China are expected to accumulate inventory in the next three months. The USDA report may have a short - term negative impact, but there may be a chance for a rebound after the negative news is exhausted [53][54]. - Edible Oils: The medium - term price of edible oils may decline, but the short - term may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the expected release of the new RVO rule in the United States [55][58]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price may decline in the second and third quarters. The domestic sugar price may weaken in the future as the import profit window may reopen [59][60]. - Cotton: The domestic cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation process and inventory changes [61].
五矿期货文字早评-20250512
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-05-12 06:06