氧化铝与电解铝日评：几内亚铝土矿增产引导供给趋松，国内铝锭和铝棒总库存量环比减少-20250512

Report Title - Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum Daily Review 20250512: Increased Production of Bauxite in Guinea Leads to Looser Supply, and the Total Inventory of Domestic Aluminum Ingot and Aluminum Rod Decreases Month-on-Month [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decreasing bauxite price leads to a decline in alumina production costs, but production losses cause a decrease in domestic alumina operating capacity, which may keep the alumina price fluctuating at a low level. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 2300 - 2900 and the resistance level around 3000 - 3200 [5] - The Sino-US tariff negotiation has achieved progress, and the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingot and aluminum rod is decreasing. However, due to the approaching traditional consumption off-season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be strong first and then weak. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19000 - 19200 and the resistance level around 20000 - 20220 for Shanghai aluminum. For London aluminum, focus on the support level around 2200 - 2300 and the resistance level around 2500 - 2600 [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Transaction Data - Shanghai Aluminum Futures Active Contract: The closing price on May 9, 2025, was 19,585, up 75 from the previous day. The trading volume was 115,651 hands, a decrease of 151,912 hands. The open interest was 181,738 hands, a decrease of 10,967 hands. The inventory was 65,013 tons, a decrease of 1,093 tons [2] - Shanghai Aluminum Basis: The SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum semi-average price was 19,610, down 10. The Shanghai aluminum basis was 25, down 85 [2] - Alumina Spot Price: The national average price of alumina was 2,896.36, up 0.5. The average prices in different regions showed different changes, with the price in Guizhou increasing by 20 [2] - Alumina Futures Price: The closing price was 2,827, up 33. The trading volume was 969,975 hands, an increase of 240,853 hands. The open interest was 279,577 hands, an increase of 2,668 hands. The inventory was 249,763 tons, a decrease of 7,213 tons [2] - London Aluminum: The closing price of LME 3 - month aluminum futures (electronic trading) was 9,445.5, up 14. The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 49.19, up 3.37 [2] 2. Important Information - Upstream: The production of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan has not fully resumed. Guinea plans to increase production, which may lead to a looser supply and a decline in the price of domestic and imported bauxite. The domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate has slightly decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased. Some new alumina production capacities are under construction or have been put into operation, which may increase the production in June [3] - Mid - stream: The production capacity utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum has remained stable or slightly decreased, and the production may increase. Some overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have production changes, and the import volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum may decrease in May. The inventory in the bonded area has increased, while the social inventory has decreased [5] - Downstream: The outbound volume of aluminum rods in mainstream consumption areas has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions has decreased. The social inventory of aluminum alloy has remained unchanged. The raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of some downstream processing enterprises has increased, while that of others has decreased [5] 3. Trade Agreement - On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum products and reduce the import tariff on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars per year. In exchange, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market [2]