Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of aluminum is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2506 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed an oscillating and weakening trend, ranging from around 19,310 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the contract price running around 2,377 - 2,460 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 19,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,640 yuan/ton, 19,840 yuan/ton, 19,665 yuan/ton, and 19,635 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum remained around par, unchanged from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In April 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of alumina was 87.4 million tons, with a total capacity of 110.82 million tons and an operating rate of 78.87%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of April 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.099 million tons, with a total capacity of 45.182 million tons and an operating rate of 97.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [21]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 169,665 tons, a decrease of 6,192 tons from the previous week. As of May 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 405,575 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.13%. - As of May 8, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. The inventories in Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Foshan, Tianjin, Shenyang, Gongyi, and Chongqing were 31,000 tons, 196,000 tons, 14,000 tons, 237,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 1,000 tons, 74,000 tons, and 7,000 tons respectively [27]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve admitted that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased, and "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased." In April, the one - year inflation expectation in the US remained stable at 3.6%, while the three - year inflation expectation rose from 3% to 4.2%, reaching the highest level since July 2022. The inflation expectation in the US has risen, and the pressure on the employment market has increased. - The total capacity of alumina continues to grow, while the in - production capacity has decreased. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to climb, and the operating rate remains at a high level. The inventory of Shanghai aluminum continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [4][36].
铝周报：氧化铝产能出现下降，铝价或震荡偏强运行-20250512
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-05-12 06:06