中美经贸谈判取得实质性进展，市场风偏有望改善

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Overseas: US tariff negotiations have made progress, with substantial progress in China-US economic and trade talks and a limited trade agreement between the US and the UK. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in May, and the market has digested the expectation of no rate cut in June, but the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains. Attention this week is on US April CPI and retail data [2] - Domestic: On May 7, three financial ministries held a press conference to implement a new round of domestic growth-stabilizing policies. The market risk appetite was boosted. April price data was weak as expected, and April export growth far exceeded expectations [3] Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% in May, emphasizing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and rising risks of unemployment and inflation. Powell adopted a "wait-and-see" stance, and the market has digested the expectation of no rate cut in June, while the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains [4] Domestic Macro - Price levels declined again in April. CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, and PPI was -2.7% year-on-year. Oil prices and transportation items dragged down CPI, and core CPI remained flat. Industrial product prices were weak, with non-ferrous metals being strong and petroleum and black metals being weak [6][7] - China's April foreign trade data exceeded expectations. Exports were 8.1% year-on-year, and imports were -0.2% year-on-year. The trade surplus was $96.18 billion. The strong re-export trade, especially to the ASEAN market, drove the overall export recovery [13] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Most A-share indices rose last week, with the GEM Index rising 3.27%. Among Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 3.38%. Among overseas stocks, the German DAX rose 4.46% [17] - Bond: Domestic bond yields generally declined, and overseas bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10Y-1Y domestic bond term spread widened by 4.88 BP [20] - Commodity: The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.84%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose 1.66%. COMEX gold rose 2.65%, and WTI crude oil rose 4.75% [21] - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index rose 0.38%. The US dollar against the RMB fell 0.24%, and the euro against the RMB fell 1.31% [24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: Data on urban congestion, subway passenger volume, real estate transactions, passenger car sales, and steel consumption are presented [26] - Overseas: Data on US retail sales, unemployment claims, bond yield spreads, and Fed interest rate change probabilities are presented [31] This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's April M2 money supply growth rate, the eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US April CPI and retail sales data [38]