供应端波动频繁，氧化铝反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the cost - inversion situation of alumina enterprises was still severe, production willingness decreased, and some enterprises cut production. There are still maintenance and production - cut plans in the future. The new northern production capacity has not shown an increase in supply, and there are negative news, leading to market观望 about its future production increase [3][8]. - The demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises was mainly about capacity transfer last week, with theoretical demand remaining basically unchanged. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 57,427 tons to 243,000 tons, and the factory warehouse decreased by 900 tons to 7,200 tons [3][8]. - Overall, some alumina enterprises are still in a theoretical loss state. With maintenance and production - cut plans and the new production capacity causing concerns, the alumina has good bottom support. However, it is also affected by the new production capacity commissioning process and the potential decline in costs, so it has the impetus to rebound but the height is expected to be limited [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2729 | 2827 | 98 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2900 | 2907 | 7 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 149 | 77 | -72 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 348 | 349 | 1 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -285.39 | -280.49 | 4.9 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 271413 | 242563 | -28850 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 7200 | 7200 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 77 | 75 | -2 | US dollars/ton | [4] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 2.59% last week, closing at 2,827 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market on Friday was 2,907 Yuan/ton, up 7 Yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - For bauxite, the cost pressure of alumina producers was slightly relieved. After the holiday, inland alumina enterprises lowered the purchase price of domestic ore, and there were rumors about the second - quarter price cut of Guinea's long - term bauxite contracts [6]. - On the supply side, some new alumina production capacity was put into operation last week, but some enterprises carried out maintenance and production cuts. As of May 8, China's alumina production capacity was 110.6 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.25% [6]. - On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity in Shandong continued to transfer to Yunnan, and the theoretical operating capacity of the industry remained stable, with no obvious change in the demand for alumina. As of now, the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.835 million tons, the same as last week [6]. - In terms of inventory, last Friday, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 57,427 tons to 243,000 tons, and the factory warehouse decreased by 900 tons to 7,200 tons [6]. Market Outlook - The situation is the same as the core views, including cost - inversion, production cuts, new production capacity issues, stable demand, and the situation of inventory change. Alumina has support at the bottom and rebound impetus but limited upside [8]. Industry News - The Shanxi Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision issued a notice to standardize mine safety supervision and law - enforcement behavior, aiming to improve law - enforcement efficiency and prevent mine safety accidents [9]. - Guinea held a publicity seminar to promote the national framework for compensating, indemnifying, and resettling the population affected by development projects [9]. - Lindian Resources acquired the remaining 25% stake in Bauxite Holding to gain full ownership of the Lelouma bauxite project in Guinea and eliminate risks related to ownership dilution and finance [9]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [10][12][13]