新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-12）-20250512

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly, with an increase in short - term positions [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating at a low level [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Moving upward [4] - CSI 1000: Moving upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Moving upward [4] - Gold: Oscillating at a high level [4] - Silver: Oscillating at a high level [4] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [6] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Oscillating [8] - PTA: Oscillating [8] - MEG: On the sidelines [8] - PR: On the sidelines [8] - PF: On the sidelines [8] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short - term but may face downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term due to factors such as steel mill production cuts and Sino - US trade frictions [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an oversupply situation in coke [2]. - The steel market, including rolled steel and rebar, is expected to oscillate at a low level due to concerns about supply, demand, and policy [2]. - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real - estate industry is in an adjustment period and demand is weak [2]. - The stock index market shows different trends, and with the improvement of the external market and the implementation of monetary policies, long - positions in stock indices are recommended [4]. - The bond market is expected to have a reasonable liquidity level, and long - positions in bonds are recommended [4]. - The precious metals market, including gold and silver, is expected to oscillate at a high level, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, trade policies, and inflation [4]. - The pulp and log markets are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to sufficient supply and weak consumption [6]. - The soybean meal and related products market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to increased supply and reduced demand [6]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and weak driving forces [8]. - The chemical products market, including PX, PTA, and others, shows different trends mainly affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals Industry - Iron ore: Future iron ore shipments may seasonally increase. Steel mills' profitability and iron - water production are high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the short - term, the market is strong, while in the medium - to - long - term, short - positions in the 09 contract are recommended [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Mongolian coal supply is limited, but the overall supply pressure is high. Coke production is increasing, and inventory is rising. The market is weak and follows the trend of finished steel products [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: Steel mills' profits are good, but there are concerns about external demand and domestic demand. The market inventory is low, but production is high, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - Glass: Some production lines have resumed production, and coal prices have fallen, improving profits. However, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2]. Financial Market - Stock indices: Different stock indices show different trends. The Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved progress, and with the implementation of monetary policies, long - positions in stock indices are recommended [4]. - Treasury bonds: Interest rates are oscillating, and the market will maintain a reasonable liquidity level. Long - positions in bonds are recommended [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate at a high level, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, trade policies, and inflation [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: The spot price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - Logs: Demand has declined after a peak, and supply pressure has decreased. The cost has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - Oils: Palm oil production is increasing seasonally, and soybean supply is abundant. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. - Meals: Soybean supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing after the holiday. The market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [6]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Rubber: Supply may be affected by the postponed opening of the Thai rubber season, but domestic supply is increasing. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - PX: It follows the trend of oil prices, which are oscillating at a low level due to demand and geopolitical pressures [8]. - PTA: Supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8]. - MEG: Although short - term supply and demand are not bad, the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the market is on the sidelines [8]. - PR and PF: The market shows different trends due to factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and industry processing fees [8].