原油：关税缓和及地缘紧张，油价反弹修复

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies and the results of US-Iran negotiations are uncertain, which intensifies market volatility. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 82.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 17.3%. [6] - On the supply side, Iran's nuclear negotiations with the US are "difficult but productive," and OPEC plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in June, almost offsetting the compensatory production cuts of 431,000 barrels per day by seven countries. [6] - On the demand side, the US and the UK have reached a trade framework agreement, and China and the US are holding talks, which may ease tariff conflicts and boost market sentiment. [6] - In the short term, oil prices may fluctuate and recover, but in the medium term, the center of gravity may decline. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities before the June OPEC meeting and focus on the WTI range of $55 - $65 per barrel. [6] Summary by Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From May 5 - 9, international oil prices rebounded and recovered. As of May 9, WTI settled at $61.02 per barrel (+4.68%), Brent at $63.91 per barrel (+4.27%), and INE SC at 493.9 yuan per barrel (+2.34%). [9] - The week-on-week price changes and spreads of various crude oil varieties and arbitrage indicators are detailed in the report, including price increases for WTI, Brent, and Oman, and decreases for SC. [12] 1.2 Financial Aspects - The tension in the trade war has eased, but there is no further positive progress. The S&P 500 index is oscillating within a range, and the VIX volatility has further slowed down. However, due to potential changes in some US policies, financial market volatility may not continue to decline. [14] 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - As of May 9, the crude oil ETF volatility was 39.82, and the US dollar index was 100.42. After the release of the negative impact of OPEC+ production increases before May Day, the volatility in the crude oil market has decreased. The market is currently focused on the impact of US tariff policies and geopolitics on oil prices, and the US dollar index is under pressure. [18] 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - As of May 6, the net long positions of WTI managed funds decreased by 11,500 contracts to 128,600 contracts, a weekly decline of 8.2%. The speculative net long positions increased by 9,700 contracts to 37,200 contracts, a weekly increase of 26%. [21] 2. Crude Oil Supply Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - In March, OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 78,000 barrels per day to 26.776 million barrels per day. Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria had significant production cuts, while Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait had slight increases. [27] - According to the IEA's statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries in March was 21.94 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 60,000 barrels per day. Iraq and the UAE still had significant overproduction. [31] - In March, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 40,000 barrels per day to 8.964 million barrels per day, and Iran's production increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 3.335 million barrels per day. [34] 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistics, Russia's crude oil production in March was 8.963 million barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 barrels per day. According to the IEA, it was 9.07 million barrels per day, also a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day. In March, Russia's crude oil and petroleum product exports totaled 7.38 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%. [44] 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of May 2, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 479, a decrease of 4 from the previous week and 20 from the same period last year. The efficiency of drilling and oil wells has improved, allowing producers to maintain record production while controlling capital expenditures. [48] - As of the week of May 2, US crude oil production decreased to 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease of 98,000 barrels per day from the previous week but a year-on-year increase of 2.04%. [52] 3. Crude Oil Demand Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the four weeks ending May 2, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 19.872 million barrels per day, an increase of 718,000 barrels per day from the previous week but a year-on-year decrease of 2.06%. [56] - The gasoline crack spread in the US has stabilized and rebounded, while the heating oil crack spread has been relatively weak. As of May 9, the gasoline crack spread was $27.53 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $25.77 per barrel. [65] 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of May 9, the ICE diesel crack spread was $18.18 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $22.88 per barrel. The impact of cold weather on oil product demand has weakened, and the crack spreads of ICE diesel and heating oil are expected to decline slightly in the second quarter. [69] 3.3 Chinese Oil Product and Refinery Situation - In March, China's crude oil processing volume decreased by 718,000 tons year-on-year to 63.06 million tons (-1.13%), and imports increased by 2.36 million tons year-on-year to 51.41 million tons (4.81%). Since March, state-owned refineries have reduced their purchases of Russian seaborne oil and increased their purchases from the Middle East, West Africa, and South America. [73] 3.4 International Institutions' Forecasts of Demand Growth - In April, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted that the global crude oil demand growth rates for this year would be 900,000 barrels per day (down), 726,000 barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (down), respectively. For next year, the growth rates are expected to be 1 million barrels per day, 692,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day. [78] 4. Crude Oil Inventory Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - As of May 2, the EIA's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438.4 million barrels, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. The SPR inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.12 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 740,000 barrels to 24.96 million barrels. [79] - As of the four weeks ending May 2, the net imports of US crude oil increased by 673,000 barrels per day to 2.05 million barrels per day. The refinery processing volume increased by 325,000 barrels per day to 15.889 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased by 0.4% to 89%. [81] - As of May 9, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.44 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.71 per barrel. The Brent M1 - M2 spread was $0.48 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.23 per barrel. Both WTI and Brent spreads showed signs of decline due to concerns about OPEC+ production increases. [84][87] 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Analysis 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In April, the EIA predicted that the global oil supply would be 104.1 million barrels per day this year, and the demand would be 103.64 million barrels per day, resulting in a daily surplus of 460,000 barrels. The IEA predicted that the supply would be 104.2 million barrels per day and the demand would be 103.5 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 700,000 barrels. [91] 5.2 Term Structure - This week, the crude oil market has oscillated upwards amidst uncertainties. The increase in OPEC production may continue until June, and the compensatory production cut plan may not be implemented, weakening the fundamental support. The term structure may change in the short term. [95]