集运日报：中美经贸正式谈判取得实质性进展，符合日报预期，今日若冲高建议落袋止盈-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations meets the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits if the price surges today [1] - The core logic for this year lies in the trend of international tariff policies. There are concerns about the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [4] - Short - term operation is difficult due to external policy turmoil, and it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term strategies. In the context of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse spread structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Risk - preference investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, setting stop - losses and taking profits on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On May 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1320.69 points, up 7.3% from the previous period [2] - On May 9, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 952.32 points, up 2.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 756.79 points, down 0.94% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1471.92 points, down 0.41% from the previous period [2] - On May 9, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1345.17 points, down 4.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1161 USD/TEU, down 3.3% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2347 USD/FEU, up 3.3% from the previous period [2] - On May 9, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1106.38 points, down 1.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1445.24 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 857.65 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2] 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the added - value of the service industry PMI in April was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the added - value of the composite PMI in April was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9) [2] - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2] - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3] - In the US, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary service industry PMI in April was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary composite PMI in April was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3] - In the first four months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%; imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. In April, China's goods trade import and export was 3.84 trillion yuan, up 5.6%. Exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8% [4] 3.3 Futures Market - On May 9, the main contract 2506 closed at 1249.8, down 0.80%, with a trading volume of 36,800 lots and an open interest of 36,900 lots, a decrease of 1255 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts 2504 - 2602 is 16%, the company's margin for contracts 2504 - 2602 is 26%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4] 3.4 Geopolitical News - On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a cease - fire [4] - Maersk announced that the Red Sea will remain closed for shipping throughout 2025, which boosts bullish confidence to some extent [4]