粕类周报：粕类周报市场压力仍在体现粕类震荡运行-20250512

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets are under pressure, with domestic soybean meal supply improving and rapeseed meal demand expected to weaken. The overall market is expected to be volatile, and a bearish strategy is recommended for single - sided trading [3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Soybean Situation: US soybean futures oscillated this week, affected by supply - demand and soybean oil fluctuations. Old - crop soybeans face little pressure with good exports and some support in crushing. New - crop soybeans are bearish due to smooth planting. South American supply pressure persists despite some improvement in Brazil. Domestic soybean meal supply is improving, and with increasing soybean arrivals, supply pressure is expected to rise, but the current large decline in the futures price limits further downside [3] - Rapeseed Meal Situation: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is good, and crushing volume is relatively large. With fewer imported rapeseed arrivals, crushing may decline. As soybean meal supply increases, rapeseed meal demand will weaken, and the market is expected to remain stable [4] - Trading Strategies: Adopt a bearish strategy for single - sided trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [5] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - US Soybeans: The US soybean futures oscillated. Old - crop exports are good, with cumulative growth of 12.72% as of May 1st, higher than the USDA's estimate. Crushing profit has weakened, and attention should be paid to the bio - diesel policy. New - crop planting progress is 30% as of May 4th, but export sales are slow, and the futures price may face pressure [9] - South America: Brazil's pressure has eased slightly, but with high production and improved Argentine supply, pressure remains. Brazil's harvest is almost complete, but exports and sales have slowed. Argentina's exports and crushing are sufficient, and prices are under pressure. Macro - level impacts from Sino - US and EU - US trade negotiations are limited [12] - Domestic Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated. This week, the oil mill's operating rate increased significantly, and production meets demand. Spot prices in most regions weakened, but some areas remained strong due to low inventory. Demand is good, but spot trading volume is low, mainly in basis trading. With increasing soybean arrivals, supply pressure will increase, and the market will be volatile [15] - Domestic Rapeseed Meal: The domestic rapeseed meal futures were slightly stronger than soybean meal. The basis spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed. Demand is good, with a weekly average pick - up of about 50,000 tons. Supply is sufficient, but with decreasing imported rapeseed and increasing soybean meal supply, rapeseed meal demand may decline. The basis spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be volatile [18] 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - International Market: The report presents data on US soybean sales, export inspections, crushing volume, and profit, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean exports and crushing, and foreign basis [21][23][25] - Macro - level: It shows exchange rates such as USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and UDS/ARS, and shipping costs from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China, with shipping costs increasing [31][36] - Supply: Data on soybean and rapeseed imports and crushing volume are provided, indicating the current supply situation [41] - Demand: Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volume are presented, reflecting the demand situation [43] - Inventory: Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal inventory are shown, showing the inventory levels [46]