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国内产销进度偏快,郑糖走势强于原糖
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-12 06:47

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar market's expected bumper harvest in the new season puts pressure on sugar prices [6] - Internationally, Brazil's increased sugar - making ratio and sugar production in the new season drag down the market, but low inventory and tight short - term trade flow support international sugar prices. The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate. Domestically, the fast production and sales speed and early inventory reduction lead to the Zhengzhou sugar price following the cost of sugar sources to fill the gap. The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][4] - The raw sugar is affected by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and shows a weak trend, while the Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than the raw sugar due to high production - sales ratio and low inventory [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, Brazil's sugar - making ratio and sugar production in the new season are higher than last year, dragging down the market. Low inventory and tight short - term trade flow support international sugar prices. The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress. Domestically, the production and sales speed is fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. With the tightening of syrup import policies, how to fill the production - demand gap becomes the focus. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the cost of sugar sources to fill the gap. The previous market concerns about drought in Guangxi have cooled down after recent rainfall, and attention should be paid to the growth of sugarcane in the new season [3] Logic Analysis - The raw sugar is affected by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and shows a weak trend. The current sugar - making ratio is at a relatively high level in the same period. Considering the buying support below, the raw sugar is expected to fluctuate. In contrast, the high production - sales ratio and low inventory in China drive the Zhengzhou sugar to be stronger than the raw sugar. The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production area of Guangxi [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Take a wait - and - see attitude towards fluctuations - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Out - of - the - money ratio spread options [4] 2. Core Logic Analysis - The expected bumper harvest in the global sugar market in the new season puts pressure on sugar prices. The raw sugar is affected by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and shows a weak trend, while the Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than the raw sugar due to high production - sales ratio and low inventory [4][6] 3. Weekly Data Tracking Global Sugar Production Data - Brazil: In the 25/26 season as of the first half of April, sugar production increased slightly year - on - year. In April, exports decreased year - on - year but were still at a high level. As of the week of May 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also increased slightly [9][19][21] - India: In the 24/25 season, sugar factory production is approaching the end. The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) expects the 2024/25 season's sugar production to decline by 19% to 25.8 million tons. As of April 30, 2025, the number of sugar factories in production decreased, and sugar production decreased by 18.33% year - on - year [22][24] - Thailand: As of April 1, 2025, Thailand has basically completed the sugar harvest. Cumulative sugar production increased by 15% year - on - year. Exports in January increased by 16.6% year - on - year, but the cumulative exports from October last year to January this year were the lowest in the past three seasons. The weakening demand from Indonesia suppresses the premium of Thai sugar. Due to the sharp decline in cassava prices, farmers are more inclined to plant sugarcane, and it is expected that Thailand's sugar production may reach a seven - year high in the 2025/26 season [28] Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data - As of the end of April in the 2024/25 season, except for 15 sugar factories in Yunnan, other sugar factories in China have stopped production. Cumulative sugar production increased by 11.59% year - on - year, cumulative sales increased by 26.07% year - on - year, the sales ratio accelerated by 7.49% year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased by 344,800 tons year - on - year. In April, single - month production decreased by 5.65% year - on - year, and sales increased by 23.40% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 12 seasons [29] Import Data - Imported sugar: In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 59,300 tons. From January to March 2025, China imported 149,200 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 1.054 million tons, a decline of 87.60%. As of March in the 2024/25 season, China imported 1.6109 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4522 million tons, a decline of 47.41% [31] - Imported syrup & pre - mixed powder: As of March 2025, the cumulative import was 130,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 195,500 tons, a decline of 60.02% [32]