Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, and the possibility of repeated tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [7][8]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10]. - Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the increasing risk of global economic recession under tariff disturbances, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies of various countries, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals will continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, considering the industrial supply - demand situation, valuation, and technical aspects, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [15]. - For iron ore, considering the improvement of the supply - demand pattern, valuation, and technical aspects, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, considering the industrial supply - demand situation and technical aspects, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [20]. - For ferroalloys, considering the supply - demand situation, inventory, and cost, for manganese silicon, attention can be paid to the opportunities of out - of - the - money call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and attention can also be paid to the opportunities of out - of - the - money call options at low levels [23]. - For crude oil, considering the OPEC+ production increase and the positive impact of Sino - US talks, it is considered to take a long - biased operation on the main crude oil contract [25][26]. - For fuel oil, considering the possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the signing of tariff friction agreements, it is considered to take a long - biased operation on the main fuel oil contract [27][28]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state; PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state; urea requires attention to export changes; PX is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side; PTA is expected to have a small price repair space; ethylene glycol is expected to have a small upward price space; short - fiber and bottle - chip are expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side; soda ash may have short - term disk adjustments; glass has no obvious driving force in the short term; caustic soda may have certain driving forces due to device maintenance; pulp is in a weak pattern; lithium carbonate is expected to be weak; copper is expected to be strong; tin is expected to be under pressure and oscillate bearishly; nickel is recommended to be observed cautiously; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be bearish; soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil have different investment opportunities; cotton is recommended to be observed; sugar is expected to oscillate within a range; apples are recommended to focus on buying opportunities after corrections; pigs are expected to be weak first and then stable and strong; eggs are recommended to gradually take profit on reverse spreads; corn and starch are recommended to be observed temporarily; logs have no obvious driving force [29][30][32][36][38][40][42][43][44][45][47][49][52][54][56][58][60][61][63][65][68][69][73][76][78][81][83][86] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 9, with a net investment of 77 billion yuan on the same day [5]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. China's April export growth slowed down, and the trade surplus decreased. The Sino - US economic and trade talks reached important consensus [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [9]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. China's April CPI and core CPI showed certain changes, and PPI continued to decline [10]. - Although the domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down, and the silver main contract closed up. Due to the complex global situation, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals will continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12][13][14]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell significantly. The real - estate industry's downward trend suppresses rebar prices, but short - term peak - season demand may provide support. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [15][16]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern supports the price. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low levels [17][18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the price of coke is under pressure. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [20][21]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose, and the silicon iron main contract rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. Different investment opportunities are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [22][23]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. OPEC+ will increase production from May to June, and the Sino - US talks are positive for crude oil. It is considered to take a long - biased operation [24][25][26]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the signing of tariff agreements is positive for fuel oil. It is considered to take a long - biased operation [27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [32][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The demand increase may not offset the supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to export changes [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose. The short - term crude oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA improves, and the cost is expected to turn better. It is expected to have a small price repair space [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The short - term supply increase of ethylene glycol is not obvious, and the inventory may decline slightly. It is expected to have a small upward price space [41][42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract rose. The downstream terminal demand warms up slightly, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose. The raw material price oscillates and adjusts, and the bottle - chip is expected to oscillate following the cost side [44]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract fell. The supply is still high, and the raw material price is falling. There may be short - term disk adjustments [45][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass 2509 main contract fell. There is no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term [47][48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract fell. The demand for caustic soda is limited, and some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, which may have certain driving forces [49][50]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp 2507 main contract rose. The supply is high, the downstream consumption is weak, and the market is in a weak pattern [51][52][53]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and it is expected to be weak [54][55]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US talks achieved important results, and copper is expected to be strong. It is considered to take a long - biased operation on the Shanghai copper main contract [56][57]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate bearishly [58][59]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply is tightened at the mine end, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to observe cautiously [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon main contract fell, and the polysilicon main contract rose. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, and the price of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline. It is considered bearish [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and different investment opportunities are recommended for soybean oil and soybean meal [63][64]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to expected production and inventory increases. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [65][66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. In China, the situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil inventory is different. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after corrections [68]. Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton prices oscillated. The market is waiting for the USDA report and Sino - US negotiation news. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, and it is recommended to observe [69][70][71]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices oscillated at a low level, and foreign raw sugar prices rose. The international sugar market is mixed, and the domestic sugar is expected to oscillate within a range [73][74][75]. Apples - Domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The production is expected to decrease this year, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities after corrections [76][77]. Pigs - The national average pig price was stable. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak first and then stable and strong. It is recommended to observe temporarily [78][79][80]. Eggs - The average egg price was stable. The supply is expected to increase in May, and it is recommended to gradually take profit on reverse spreads [81][82]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract was flat. The domestic corn supply surplus eases slightly, and the short - term supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to observe temporarily [83][84][85]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log 2507 main contract rose slightly. The import volume decreased, and the market has no obvious driving force [86][87][88]
西南期货早间评论-20250512
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-05-12 06:40