Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly with a weekly decline of 0.29%. On May 9, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 260,000 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations in futures prices and little change in basis [11]. - In March, refined tin production rebounded, while imports of tin ore from January to March 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% decrease from the previous guidance [11]. - Demand recovered in March. Policies supporting consumer goods replacement and AI technological breakthroughs strongly supported tin demand. However, trade disputes in the second quarter affected demand. Currently, macro - demand expectations dominate the market, and policy fluctuations due to trade disputes cause significant swings in demand expectations [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees are weak. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of ore - end disturbances [11]. - LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - Due to the repeated macro - trade dispute policies causing large fluctuations in demand expectations and the short - term recovery of the ore end putting pressure on prices (which has already been reflected in prices), short - term trading is recommended for now. The weekly reference range is 245,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton. Later, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances in Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - Price Trend: The Shanghai tin market had a small - scale shock last week, with a 0.29% weekly decline. The spot price of 1 tin on May 9, 2025, was 260,000 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little [11]. - Supply: Refined tin production increased in March, and imports of tin ore from January to March 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. Alphamin cut its production guidance [11]. - Demand: Demand recovered in March but was affected by trade disputes in the second quarter. Macro - demand expectations dominate the market, and policy changes lead to large fluctuations in demand expectations. The central bank introduced ten policy measures [11]. - Cost and Profit: The ore end is tight, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory decreased week - on - week [11]. - Strategy: Short - term trading is recommended for now, with a weekly reference range of 245,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton. Later, focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. - Influence Factors: Production has a bearish impact as the ore - end supply eases; downstream demand is bearish due to trade - affected demand expectations; inventory is neutral as it is being depleted; imports and exports are bullish as net exports are stable; market sentiment and cost - profit are neutral; the macro situation is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - The report shows graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no in - depth analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of May 8, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,334 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 7, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,755 tons, a slight week - on - week increase. As of May 2, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 9,782 tons, a week - on - week decrease [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of May 8, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees remained weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - Production: In March 2025, refined tin production was 14,670 tons, an increase after the Spring Festival. Domestic tin ore production in February was 4,926.35 tons, a seasonal decrease [39]. - Capacity Utilization: In March 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 62.98%, a slight increase [43]. - New Capacity: New tin - mining projects in China, Namibia, Peru, Australia, Morocco, and Myanmar are expected to be put into production from 2024 to 2026, with a total planned capacity of 37,400 tons/year [45]. 3.7 Demand - In March 2025, China's automobile production was 3.0445 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%; electronic computer production was 50.194 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%; PVC production in April 2025 was 1.955 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; mobile electronic communication production in March 2025 was 136.7933 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; air - conditioner production in March 2025 was 33.7118 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; refrigerator production in March 2025 was 9.3835 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%; washing - machine production in March 2025 was 11.0021 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; color TV production in March 2025 was 17.932 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; solar - cell production in March 2025 was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; integrated - circuit production in March 2025 was 419.71999 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [51][55][58][61][64]. 3.8 Imports and Exports - From January to March 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842 tons, 8,745 tons, and 8,322.5 tons respectively; imported tin of 2,334 tons, 1,869 tons, and 2,100 tons respectively; and exported refined tin of 2,131 tons, 2,373 tons, and 1,714.6 tons respectively [68]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - The table shows the supply - demand balance of tin from 2017 to 2025E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance. In 2025E, the global supply - demand balance is - 0.95 million tons [70].
供给恢复与宏观政策叠加，价格等待驱动
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-05-12 06:40