基本面延续偏空预期，多空博弈升温

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate remains bearish, with the potential for new lows in lithium prices. Although some smelters have cut or halted production due to the rapid decline in lithium prices, the marginal change in domestic supply is uncertain. Imported resources are expected to increase, and upstream production is expected to increase while costs decrease. There is no expected increase in demand, as the weak trend in terminal consumption is emerging, and the new replacement policy's ability to drive potential consumption is waning, which may suppress downstream purchasing power. The short - term decline in prices may be limited, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported and domestic lithium concentrates, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased by 0.40%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,807 tons (-2.97%). The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.75%, while the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide and ternary materials remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,351 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,820 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 289,400 lots. As of May 9, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,048 tons, a decrease of 128 tons from the previous period. Some hard - rock lithium extraction plants have cut or halted production, and the increase in production from the resumption of maintenance in May may be limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of salt - lake production [7] - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The import volume from Chile was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,646 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. The increase in lithium salt shipped from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply scale in May. In March, the import volume of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8% [8][9] - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of May 9, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,442 tons, with an operating rate of 58.6% (a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 37,620 tons (a decrease of 535 tons from the previous period). The production of ternary materials was about 14,555 tons, with an operating rate of 40.0% (a decrease of 5.84 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 13,930 tons (an increase of 205 tons from the previous period). The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. Although the cathode material production schedule in May continued to expand, the terminal consumption was weak, and the cathode materials still faced over - capacity pressure [9][10] - In the new energy vehicle market, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The new energy consumption growth rate showed a pulsed pattern, and the potential consumption driven by policies was waning. The growth rate may decline significantly in the future [11] - As of May 9, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 91,762 tons, a decrease of about 2,807 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by 21 tons, and the market inventory decreased by 2,828 tons. The social inventory decreased, but downstream purchasing did not pick up, and there was still strong wait - and - see sentiment. If prices stabilize, downstream may have a strong restocking expectation [12] This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and the bearish sentiment persists. Although the short - term decline may be limited due to the strong resistance around 63,000 yuan, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [13] Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million. The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased year - on - year. The service consumption continued to heat up [14] - On May 7, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [14] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrates, and the production and supply structure of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products [16][18][21][24][27]