国贸期货：黑色金属周报-20250512

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each sub - industry: - Threaded Steel: Investment view is to "observe" [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Suggests "shorting on rallies", with a generally bearish outlook [49] - Iron Ore: Investment view is "sideways trading" [95] - Ferroalloys: Investment view is "sideways trading" [149] 2. Core Views - The core logic of the black sector is that the supply of furnace materials is becoming more abundant, and the upstream of the industrial chain is making concessions to the downstream. Cost loosening has led to a downward shift in the valuation center. The impact of demand - side and supply - side policies on prices is currently limited [7]. - The performance of different sub - industries is affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, cost, and policies. For example, in the coking coal and coke market, the increasing supply and the expected decline in demand are the main factors leading to the bearish outlook [49]. 3. Summary by Sub - industry 3.1 Threaded Steel - Supply: Currently at a high level, with limited short - term downward potential. Future production reduction may require weakening demand and negative production profits [7]. - Demand: The weekly demand data has weakened, but it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to distinguish between the impact of the holiday and actual demand decline. Export demand remains strong [7]. - Inventory: Affected by the holiday, it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to determine the real demand situation [7]. - Basis/Spread: The basis is stable, and the futures are at a discount [7]. - Profit: Spot steel mill profits have declined to a low level but are still in the positive range [7]. - Valuation: Relatively low, with room for further compression [7]. - Macro and Policy: The market's response to macro - policies is not positive, and the short - term market may be affected by Sino - US trade negotiations [7]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, do rolling hedging and position management; for arbitrage, take profit when the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel is below 90; for spot - futures trading, conduct positive arbitrage on hot - rolled coil [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: There is a need to pay attention to whether the expected decline in steel demand is realized. High - level hot metal production continues [49][62]. - Coking Coal Supply: Mines are accumulating inventory, and the pressure on production - end shipments is increasing. The price of Mongolian coal is declining, and the domestic - foreign price difference remains large [49][70]. - Coke Supply: Supply is still sufficient, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing [49][73]. - Inventory: Coke inventory shows a decline in all links according to one institution, but the opposite according to another. Coking coal inventory shows a pattern of upstream accumulation and downstream reduction [49][75]. - Basis/Spread: The expectation of coke price cuts is rising, and the cost of coke warehouse receipts is changing [49]. - Profit: Steel mills' profitability is good, while the profitability of coking plants is weak, and the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing [49]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage on the JM9 - 1 contract [49]. 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: Shipment is stable, but the overall shipment situation is not as expected at the beginning of the year [95]. - Demand: Steel mill hot metal production continues to rise, and the demand in May is expected to remain high, leading to a slight decline in port inventory [95]. - Inventory: With stable arrivals and hot metal production, port inventory will decline slightly [95]. - Profit: Steel mill profits are still good, so hot metal production will remain stable in the short term [95]. - Valuation: In the short term, the valuation is relatively neutral under the expectation of production restrictions [95]. - Cross - month Spread: The 9 - 1 spread is recommended for positive arbitrage due to factors such as high near - month demand and greater far - month supply pressure [95]. - Macro and Policy: Without considering production restrictions, the iron ore market will be in a weak sideways trend in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel mills' self - initiated production cuts may occur [95]. - Trading Strategy: Consider single - side shorting above $100; continue to hold the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [95]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - Supply: The production reduction of manganese silicon has expanded, while the production of ferrosilicon has rebounded due to electricity price concessions in Ningxia, but losses in other regions are increasing [149]. - Demand: Hot metal production remains at a high level of 245 [149]. - Inventory: Manganese silicon has a heavy warehouse receipt inventory pressure, and the factory inventory of ferrosilicon is declining rapidly, but the 06 warehouse receipts need to be cancelled [149]. - Basis/Spread: The current futures are at a large discount, and the basis and monthly spread are strengthening due to production cuts [149]. - Cost: The cost of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is under downward pressure, with factors such as the decline in manganese ore prices and electricity price subsidies [149]. - Valuation: Relatively low [149]. - Macro and Policy: A high - level meeting was held, and an interest rate cut was implemented, but the magnitude was in line with expectations [149]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on ferrosilicon; for arbitrage, observe [149].