沪锡日评：国内精炼锡产能开工率环比下降，国内外精炼锡库存量较上周增加-20250512

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of tin is expected to be strong first and then weak due to the initial results of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the possible relaxation of US restrictions on chip exports to Gulf countries, the expected resumption of the tin mine in Myanmar's Wa State, and the increase in refined tin inventories at home and abroad. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support levels around 230,000 - 250,000 for Shanghai tin, 265,000 - 280,000 for resistance, and 28,000 - 30,000 for support and 32,000 - 34,000 for resistance for London tin [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Company News - Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. plans to have its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., conduct an off - market conditional offer to acquire all the issued shares of Atlantic Tin Limited at a price of A$0.24 per share. The company will provide financial support for this transaction [3]. Market Data - Shanghai Tin Futures: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 259,540, down 1,940 from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,445 lots, a decrease of 32,879; the open interest was 30,130 lots, down 834; the inventory was 8,402 tons, up 68 [2]. - Shanghai Tin Basis and Spreads: The SMM 1 tin average price was 259,600, down 2,600 from the previous day; the basis was 60, down 660; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 240, up 60; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 30, up 10; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 30, down 200 [2]. - London Tin: The closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on May 9, 2025, was 31,885, up 8 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 43.01, up 115.06; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 32, up 67.90; the global inventory was 2,705 tons, unchanged; the registered warrants were 2,395, unchanged; the cancelled warrants were 310, unchanged; the Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.14, down 0.06 [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: In Myanmar, the Manxiang tin mine in Wa State clarified the process of obtaining mining and exploration licenses on April 23 and significantly increased fees. Full resumption of normal mining may take about 2 months. Alphamin Resources announced the resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo (the production in 2024 and 2025 is 17,300 and 20,000 tons respectively). Domestic tin ore production (imports) in May may decrease (increase). The domestic tin concentrate processing fee is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation. The supply of scrap tin is expected to increase but cannot change the tight situation. The production of recycled tin in China in May may not increase. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) decreased (remained flat) compared with last week, and the production (inventory) of refined tin in China in May may decrease (decrease). Malaysia's MSC smelting company suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. Indonesia tightened the qualification review of exporters and adjusted the quota allocation mechanism. PT Tinah, an Indonesian state - owned tin mining company, plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025 from 18,915 and 17,507 tons to 21,545 and 19,065 tons respectively, and exports in May may increase. China's refined tin imports (exports) in May may increase (increase). The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China increased, and the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange increased [4]. - Demand Side: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding ribbons decreased, and the operating rate (inventory) of tin solder production capacity in China in May may decrease (decrease). China's imports (exports) of welding ribbons in May may decrease (increase). The production (imports, exports) of tin - plated sheets in China in May may increase (decrease, decrease). The operating rate of China's lead - acid battery production capacity increased compared with last week [4].