黑色金属周报：钢材：消费拐点显现，钢价震荡偏弱-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report From the fundamental perspective, the consumption inflection point of finished products has emerged, the inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. The current Gangyin data shows that both cold and hot-rolled products are in a stockpiling trend, and there are signs of weakening supply and demand on the spot end. Coupled with market concerns about the decline in later exports, steel prices are operating weakly. In the short term, affected by the substantial progress in the Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks, sentiment may be boosted, but the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to the cost pressure of long-process production (3057), and cautious operation is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - Last week, domestic steel spot prices declined. For example, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3150 yuan (-50), and that in Tangshan was 3170 yuan (-20); the price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai was 3200 yuan (-40), and that in Tianjin was 3180 yuan (-20) [5]. - As of May 8, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 9.52 tons, the factory inventory of the five major products increased by 19.62 tons month-on-month, and the social inventory increased by 9.35 tons. The apparent demand was 845.2 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 125.66 tons [6]. - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.99 million tons, or 1.7%; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.27 million tons, or 2.3%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 216 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and the cumulative crude steel output was 259 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [15]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - Long-process supply: The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces of 247 steel enterprises was 92.1%, a slight increase of 0.09 from the previous period, with a month-on-month increase of 0.10%; the daily average pig iron output was 245.6 tons, an increase of 0.22 from the previous period, with a month-on-month increase of 0.09% [50]. - Short-process supply: As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric arc furnace plants was 34.2% (+3.1); the iron-scrap price difference was -78.92 yuan (-1.4) [53]. - Scrap steel: The daily consumption of 255 sample steel plants was 54.5 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.79 tons; the daily arrival of 255 steel plants was 50.4 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.64 tons; the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 518.7 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20.86 tons, or 3.9% [6]. - Rebar production: This week, the original sample rebar production was 223.53 tons (-9.58), including 197.22 tons of long-process production (-6.61) and 26.31 tons of short-process production (-3.24) [66]. 3.2.2 Demand - Building materials transactions: The trading volume of building materials in the northern, eastern, and southern regions showed certain fluctuations, but overall, the demand was relatively weak [69][71][73]. - Cement mill operating rate: The average operating load of national cement mills was 44.13%, a decrease of 4.17 percentage points from the previous week, and the decline rate widened by 3.43 percentage points. Affected by the weather, the demand in some southern provinces decreased, and the mill operation decreased. Overall, the demand was weak, and only a few regions in the northwest still had a slight seasonal increase [76]. - Real estate sales: The transaction area and year-on-year data of commercial housing in 30 cities showed certain fluctuations, reflecting the instability of the real estate market [78]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Rebar inventory: The original sample rebar factory inventory was 188.27 tons (+15.11), the social inventory was 465.36 tons (-5.48), and the total inventory was 653.63 tons (+9.63) [82]. - Hot-rolled coil inventory: This week, the hot-rolled coil production was 320.38 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.08 tons; the apparent demand was 309.53 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.34 tons; in terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 0.7 tons, the social inventory increased by 11.55 tons month-on-month, and the overall inventory decreased by 6.86 tons [85]. 3.2.4 Export As of May 9, the FOB export price of China was 462 US dollars (+5), and the export profit was +13.5 US dollars (+4.45); the outbound volume of major domestic ports (32 ports) was 299.52 tons (-65.37) [95].