Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-05-12 07:21Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the overseas lithium resource supply was generally stable, with a slow clearance of high - cost mines and persistent supply pressure. Australian shipments decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter, South American salt lakes continued to increase production, Brazilian hard - rock expansion and production were postponed, and African supply faced cost challenges at low lithium prices [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the production conditions of NAL, Marion, Wodgina, and large African lithium mines [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Australia - In Q1 2025, Australian mine shipments were about 950,000 tons, a 2.7% quarter - on - quarter decline. The quarterly average in 2025 is expected to be 900,000 - 950,000 tons. Production at Greenbushes and Pilbara decreased quarter - on - quarter, while Marion, Wodgina, and Kathleen Valley increased [3]. - Only small mines like Bald Hill and Cattin have exited or plan to exit the supply, while mainstream enterprises maintain high - capacity utilization or take other cost - reduction measures [3]. Greenbushes - In Q1 2025, it produced 342,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 13% quarter - on - quarter decrease and a 22% year - on - year increase. Sales volume was 366,000 tons, a 17% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 100% year - on - year increase. The average selling price was $791/ton (FOB). Cash production cost increased 5% quarter - on - quarter to A$341/ton and decreased 12% year - on - year [4]. - The CGP3 is expected to produce the first batch of lithium concentrate in Q4 2025. The Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant produced 1,562 tons in Q1 2025, a 2% quarter - on - quarter decrease and a 64% year - on - year increase, with a capacity utilization rate of only 26% [5]. Pilbara - In Q1 2025, lithium concentrate production was 125,000 tons (SC5.1), a 33.6% decrease from the previous quarter and a 30.2% year - on - year decrease. Sales volume was 125,500 tons (SC5.2), a 38.5% quarter - on - quarter decrease and a 23.9% year - on - year decrease. The average selling price was $851/ton (China CIF, SC6). Unit operating cost was $499/ton, a 4% quarter - on - quarter increase [6]. - The P1000 project started producing ore in late January, and production is expected to increase and unit cost to decrease in Q2 [6]. Mt Marion - In Q1 2025, total lithium concentrate production was 140,000 tons, a 21% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 23% year - on - year decrease. Shipment volume was 138,000 tons (SC4.4). The selling price was $845/dry ton (SC4.4). The cost in Q1 was A$708/ton (SC6, FOB) [7]. - The 2025 fiscal - year production guidance increased by 70,000 tons to 370,000 - 400,000 tons (SC4.1). The cost guidance for 2025 fiscal year (converted to SC6) is maintained at A$870 - 970/ton [7]. Wodgina - In Q1 2025, it produced 126,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 17% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 29% year - on - year increase. Sales volume was 118,000 tons, a 3% quarter - on - quarter decrease and an 8% year - on - year decrease. The average realized price (SC6) was $846/ton, a 1.4% quarter - on - quarter increase [8]. - The cost in Q1 was A$775/ton (SC6, FOB). The 2025 fiscal - year cost guidance (converted to SC6) is maintained at A$800 - 900/ton, with the upper limit increased by A$10. The production guidance remains unchanged at 420,000 - 460,000 tons [8][9]. Kathleen Valley - In Q1 2025, lithium concentrate production was 95,709 tons, a 12% quarter - on - quarter increase. Sales volume was 93,940 tons, a 15% quarter - on - quarter increase. The average selling price was $815/ton (SC6), a 1% quarter - on - quarter increase. Unit operating cost was $512/ton (FOB), a 21% quarter - on - quarter decrease [10]. - The all - in sustaining cost (AISC) was $678/ton (SC6.0, FOB), an 11% quarter - on - quarter decrease [10]. Other Mines - SQM's Mt Holland business sales volume in 2025 fiscal year is about 10,000 tons LCE (50% equity) [11]. - Rio Tinto completed the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium in March 2025. Mt Cattlin will enter maintenance after completing the remaining mining and beneficiation in the first half of this year [12]. South America - Most South American salt - lake projects put into production in 2023 - 2024 are approaching full production. Argentina is the largest growth point in South American lithium carbonate supply, with an expected 75% year - on - year increase in production to 130,000 tons in 2025. SQM in Chile will have an incremental output of over 20,000 tons. The expansion of the Grota do Cirilo hard - rock project in Brazil is postponed to 2026 [14]. SQM - In Q4 2024, SQM's lithium salt sales volume was 58,000 tons, a 13% year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter increase. The average selling price was $9,172/ton, a 41% year - on - year and 6% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The unit sales cost was $6,819/ton, a 37% year - on - year and 14% quarter - on - quarter decrease [14]. - In 2025, SQM's sales volume will increase by about 15% year - on - year, including 10,000 tons LCE from Holland [14]. Other Projects - Rio Tinto's total lithium project output in Q1 was about 20,000 tons LCE, with an estimated slight increase in salt - lake project output [15][16]. - Posco's 25,000 - ton/year lithium hydroxide plant in Hombre Muerto was completed in October 2024, and the second - phase project is planned to be completed in the second half of 2025 [17]. - Lithium Americas' Caucharí - Olaroz project slightly exceeded the 2024 annual production target. The 2025 production target is 30,000 - 35,000 tons, and the second - phase expansion is in preparation [18]. - The Rincon lithium project's 3,000 - ton plant produced its first lithium product in December 2024. The project is expected to be completed in Q2 2025. The board approved a $2.5 - billion investment to expand the annual capacity to 60,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate, with construction starting in mid - year and first production expected in 2028 [19]. - The Centenario - Ratones salt lake produced about 440 tons of lithium carbonate in Q1, with a purity higher than 99.5%. Eramet expects the 2025 production target to be at the lower end of the guidance range and reach the nameplate capacity by the end of the year [20]. - Zijin Mining's 3Q lithium salt lake in Argentina is expected to start producing crude lithium carbonate products in Q3 2025, with an annual production of about 20,000 tons [21]. Africa - In Q1 2025, African lithium supply faced cost challenges due to low lithium prices. Chinese imports of African lithium concentrate in the first three months were about 330,000 tons, a 23.3% year - on - year decrease. African local lithium ore rough processing will determine the supply continuity of African resources [22]. Specific Mines - Zhongkuang Resources' Bikita lithium mine consists of two projects. In 2024, it achieved a lithium salt production of 43,700 tons and sales of 42,600 tons. In Q1 2025, the estimated lithium salt production from its own mines was about 8,300 tons [23]. - Huayou Cobalt's Arcadia lithium mine had a lithium concentrate shipment of about 400,000 tons in 2024. A 50,000 - ton lithium sulfate project started construction in January 2025 [24]. - Shengxin Lithium's Sabi Star project has reached full production. It entered a maintenance period in December 2024 and is expected to gradually resume production in April 2025 [26]. - Yahua Group's KMC lithium mine project phase II was fully put into production in November 2024. The company expects the lithium concentrate self - sufficiency rate to increase in Q2, and the market speculates that the annual production may exceed 200,000 tons [27]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Goulamina lithium pyroxene project phase I in Mali was officially put into production in December 2024, with a planned annual capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate, and the phase II will expand the capacity to 1 million tons [28]. North America - North American Lithium (NAL) produced 43,261 tons of lithium concentrate in Q1 2025, a 15% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The recovery rate reached 69%, a 1 - percentage - point increase. Sales volume was 27,030 tons, a 59% quarter - on - quarter decrease. It is expected that Q2 shipments will account for 70% of the first - half shipments [29]. - The average actual selling price (FOB) increased 8% to A$1,142/dry metric ton. Unit operating cost decreased 1% quarter - on - quarter to A$830/ton (FOB). The 2025 production target is 190,000 - 210,000 tons [29].