纸浆：基本面边际略改善，短期浆价区间反弹为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the pulp market have slightly improved, with port inventories being depleted. However, pressure still remains. Some traders have tentatively raised their quotes, and the macro - sentiment has improved over the weekend. This week, the main pulp futures price is expected to rebound within a certain range, but the upside space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review - Needle - stable and Broad - weak: Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed a trend of stable needle pulp and weak broad - leaf pulp. In Shandong, the quotes of coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood remained unchanged, while the quotes of broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish, Bird, and Alpa decreased. The Goldfish was quoted at 4,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.2%); the Bird and Alpa were quoted at 4,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton (or - 2.41%) [10]. - Stable Prices of Special Pulps: The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp in Shandong remained stable. For example, the chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe was quoted at 3,900 yuan/ton, and the natural color pulp Venus was quoted at 5,350 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous week [13]. - Pulp Futures Review: The main pulp futures contract SP2507 first declined, then rebounded, and fluctuated within a 90 - point range last week. It finally closed at 5,164 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (or + 0.86%) for the week. The trading volume was 791,000 lots, an increase of 102,000 lots, and the open interest was 115,000 lots, a decrease of 2,200 lots [15]. - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison: Due to the stable increase in the spot price of wood pulp being slightly less than the increase in the pulp futures price, the basis discount of futures - spot narrowed slightly. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 1,036 yuan/ton, a reduction of 44 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - Log Futures Review: The main log futures contract 2507 showed a trend of first rising, then falling, and fluctuating last week. It finally closed at 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 4.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.51%) from the previous week. The trading volume was 61,000 lots, an increase of 30,500 lots, and the open interest was 30,700 lots, an increase of 2,000 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Production: Last week, the weekly pulp production was 465,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons (or 0.56%) compared with the previous week. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 215,400 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp was 200,700 tons. It is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp this week will be about 205,000 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 200,000 tons [23]. - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp last week was 79.59%, up 2.06% from the previous week, while that of chemical mechanical pulp was 84.11%, down 0.98% [26]. - Monthly Pulp Production: In April 2025, the domestic pulp production was 1.9997 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons (or 9.64%) compared with the previous month. The production of wood pulp, broad - leaf pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp all decreased [28]. - Monthly Capacity Utilization: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 69.22%, down 12.37% from the previous month, and that of chemical mechanical pulp was 83.62%, down 0.74%. The production of bamboo pulp and sugarcane pulp also decreased slightly [33]. - Production Gross Margin: In April 2025, the production gross margin of broad - leaf pulp was 1,021.81 yuan/ton, a decrease of 278.25 yuan/ton (or 21.4%) compared with the previous month and a significant year - on - year decrease. The production gross margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 225.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.84 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [34]. - Pulp Imports: In March 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.2491 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons (or 0.9%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 79,000 tons (or 2.50%) year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to March was 9.64 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons (or 5%) year - on - year [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - side Analysis - Downstream Tissue Paper Market: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 278,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or 0.36%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.9%, up 0.2% [40]. - Downstream Cultural Paper Market: In the cultural paper market last week, the copperplate paper production was 74,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (or 3.9%), and the capacity utilization rate was 54.6%, down 2.5%. The offset paper production was 201,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or 0.5%), and the capacity utilization rate was 56.3%, up 0.2% [44]. - Downstream Packaging Paper Market: In the packaging paper market last week, the production of white cardboard, whiteboard paper, corrugated paper, and boxboard paper all decreased, and their capacity utilization rates also declined to varying degrees [47][50]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: In the tissue paper market, most prices remained stable, while some decreased slightly. In the cultural paper market, the prices of double - offset paper and double - copper paper decreased. In the whiteboard paper and white cardboard markets, prices were weak, and in the boxboard paper and corrugated paper markets, prices remained stable [51][54][56]. - Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tissue paper, white cardboard, and double - offset paper decreased, while that of copperplate paper increased slightly. The actual domestic pulp consumption also decreased [59][62][65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: Last week, the overall port inventory showed a downward trend. The inventory of mainstream ports was 2.035 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (or 3.05%) compared with the previous week. The inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Tianjin Port all decreased [69][72]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 320,600 tons, an increase of 9,338 tons (or 3.0%) compared with the previous week. The warehouse receipts in Shandong increased, with significant changes in some warehouses [73].