股指期货周报：风偏改善、指数上行，关注4月经济检验-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, the macro environment is changing. With the repair of overseas equity risk appetite, the boost of domestic macro - policies, and the marginal mitigation of tariff disturbances, the RMB exchange rate and the domestic equity market are likely to remain strong. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies. The CSI 300 Index has support at 3600 - 3700 and resistance at 4000 - 4100 [2][18] Summary by Directory Market Performance - Market Review: After the holiday, the index oscillated upward with all sectors closing higher. By May 9, the CSI 300 fell 0.36%, the SSE 50 fell 0.84%, the CSI 500 rose 0.46%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.50%. IF fell 0.55%, IH fell 1.01%, IC rose 0.35%, and IM rose 0.59%. The net short positions of IF and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while those of IH and IM increased [1][4] - Liquidity and Capital: By May 9, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 26 basis points, and DR007 dropped 25.77 basis points. The inter - bank market interest rate declined marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 115.282 billion, with the main board having a net outflow of 75.083 billion and the GEM having a net outflow of 25.099 billion. The margin trading balance increased by about 17.394 billion. Foreign capital data was suspended [4][5] Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, CPI continued to be under pressure with deflationary pressure remaining. Food CPI rebounded, non - food CPI declined, and optional consumption demand was weak. PPI of production and living materials continued to decline, indicating weak manufacturing demand. The Politburo meeting emphasized more active macro - policies. After the May Day holiday, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented. Although the Q1 economy recovered better than expected, the Q2 economy faces significant downward pressure [13][15] Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed resilience, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Earnings reports and trade negotiations supported the US stock market. Domestically, the index adjustment in April digested negative impacts. In May, macro - policies provided support, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies [17][18]