Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bullish [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Bearish [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has improved, and oil prices have rebounded strongly. Different petrochemical products show various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Last Friday, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 1.85%, Brent rose 1.70%, and SC rose 1.42% [2]. - Basic Logic: The negative impact of OPEC+ production increase has been released. Sino - US trade negotiations have made substantial progress, and the US has imposed new sanctions on some ships and refineries related to Iran. EIA predicts global oil demand in 2025 to be 103.7 million barrels per day. Indian fuel demand in April decreased by 3.7% month - on - month. As of May 2, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2 million barrels [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply will be in surplus, and the price range will be $55 - 65. In the short - term, oil prices are strong but the upside is limited. Selling bull spread options is recommended. SC is expected to trade in the range of [470 - 485] [3]. LPG - Market Review: On May 9, the PG main contract closed at 4,385 yuan/ton, down 0.48% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,810 yuan/ton, 4,938 yuan/ton, and 5,130 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - Basic Logic: The cost side is favorable as oil prices strengthen due to geopolitical factors. However, the fundamentals are bearish with a decline in PDH device operating rate and an increase in port inventories. As of May 9, the PDH device profit was - 531 yuan/ton, and the port inventory was 313.54 tons [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, it is mainly affected by upstream crude oil and is bearish. In the short - term, it may rebound due to geopolitical factors and peak - season expectations. Selling bull spread options is recommended. PG is expected to trade in the range of [4340 - 4400] [7]. L - Market Review: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the main contract's position increased by 1.7%. The spot market prices were mostly stable or slightly decreased, and the import and production margins generally declined [9]. - Basic Logic: New production capacity has been put into operation this year, and the import window for some products is closed. The demand for agricultural films has declined for four consecutive weeks. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is increasing. In the long - term, high production capacity and falling oil prices suggest a bearish outlook [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies. L is expected to trade in the range of [6900 - 7000] [10]. PP - Market Review: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, and the main contract's position increased by 2.3%. The spot market prices were mostly stable or slightly decreased, and the production margins generally declined [12]. - Basic Logic: A large - scale PP device has been put into operation in the first quarter. It is the off - season for demand, and the planned maintenance in May is limited. In the long - term, high production capacity and falling oil prices suggest a bearish outlook [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies. PP is expected to trade in the range of [6900 - 7000] [13]. PVC - Market Review: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the main contract's position increased by 4.8%. The spot market prices were mostly stable, and the chlorine - alkali profit increased [15]. - Basic Logic: A new device was put into operation in January. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. Exports are expected to weaken. The register date has been extended, and the warehouse receipts are increasing. The market is bearish in the short - term [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term wait - and - see. V is expected to trade in the range of [4700 - 4830] [16]. PX - Market Review: Futures prices of different contracts showed different trends, and the spot price in East China was stable. The basis and some spreads changed [17]. - Basic Logic: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the demand - side device maintenance is high. The inventory is high. In May, the fundamentals will continue to improve, and it is expected to be strong but follow cost fluctuations [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: PX is expected to trade in the range of [6360 - 6520] [18]. PTA/PR - Market Review: Futures prices of different contracts increased, and the spot price in East China rose. The basis and some spreads changed [19]. - Basic Logic: PTA device maintenance is high, and the supply pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester operating rate is high, and the terminal weaving operating rate is recovering. PTA inventory is decreasing. The spot processing fee is at a low level. It is expected to be strong but follow cost fluctuations [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: TA is expected to trade in the range of [4520 - 4620] [22]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: Futures prices of different contracts showed different trends, and the spot price in East China rose. The basis and some spreads changed [23]. - Basic Logic: Supply has recovered, and the import is higher than expected. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improving terminal weaving. The inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to be strong, and high - selling opportunities should be noted [25]. - Strategy Recommendation: EG is expected to trade in the range of [4180 - 4250] [26]. Glass - Market Review: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market was weak. The basis in Shahe area expanded, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [27]. - Basic Logic: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The glass market faces the contradiction between supply contraction and demand decline. The inventory is concentrated in the upstream and mid - stream, and the demand is weak. The price is close to the cost line, and the upside depends on policy effects and supply - side adjustments [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG is expected to trade in the range of [1020 - 1050]. Pay attention to the pressure of the 5 - day moving average, and close short positions if it breaks through [28]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Spot prices of heavy soda were stable, and the futures market fluctuated. The basis fluctuated slightly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [29]. - Basic Logic: Although some devices are under maintenance in May, the operating rate remains high, and the supply is still in surplus. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at an absolute high level. The cost center is moving down [29]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA is expected to trade in the range of [1280 - 1310] [30]. Methanol - Market Review: On May 9, the spot price in East China was 2,400 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2,227 yuan/ton. The basis and the trans - shipment profit changed [31]. - Basic Logic: The supply pressure is high as previous maintenance devices have resumed production and overseas imports are expected to arrive. The demand side is weak with low MTO device operating rates and seasonal off - peak traditional demand. The cost support is weak. The social inventory has increased [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: MA is expected to trade in the range of [2220 - 2280]. Short on rallies [31]. Urea - Market Review: On May 9, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,920 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,893 yuan/ton. The spread and basis changed [33]. - Basic Logic: The supply pressure is still high as maintenance devices have resumed production. The agricultural demand is in a slack period, and the industrial demand is weak. However, the export growth is fast this year. The cost fluctuates slightly. The fundamentals are loose, but the export policy may support the price in the short - term [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: UR is expected to trade in the range of [1880 - 1930]. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [33].
中辉期货日刊-20250512
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-05-12 07:31