《见微知著》第二十一篇：今年以来“以旧换新”政策效果如何？

Group 1: Policy Impact - The fiscal multiplier for the "trade-in" policy in Q1 2025 increased to 2.4, up from 2.1 in Q4 2024, primarily due to the expansion of subsidies to the electronics sector[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to an average monthly growth rate of 3.9% in Q4 2024[3] - If the fiscal multiplier remains above 2.0, a funding input of 300 billion yuan could boost retail sales growth by over 1.2 percentage points[4] Group 2: Sector-Specific Analysis - The subsidy amount for home appliances in Q1 2025 was 21.1 billion yuan, leading to a consumption increase of 51.5 billion yuan, resulting in a fiscal multiplier of 2.43[15] - The subsidy for automobiles in Q1 2025 was 27.9 billion yuan, generating a consumption increase of 51.7 billion yuan, with a fiscal multiplier of 1.86[20] - The subsidy for communication devices in Q1 2025 was 10.5 billion yuan, resulting in a consumption increase of 41.2 billion yuan, yielding a fiscal multiplier of 3.92[23] Group 3: Future Outlook - The acceleration of applications for the "trade-in" policy since April 2025 indicates sustained demand for consumer goods[4] - The government plans to expand the subsidy scope to include service sectors, with a proposed 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care loans[5] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected changes in the international political and economic landscape[27]