中泰期货鸡蛋市场周度报告-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the spot price of eggs remained weak. As of May 11, the average price of pink eggs was 2.8 yuan per catty, and the average price of red eggs was 2.83 yuan per catty. The current egg price is below the comprehensive cost line, approaching the daily feed cost. [4] - The supply and demand of eggs are still relatively loose, with significant supply pressure. As the egg price drops, the elimination of old chickens has accelerated slightly, but it is difficult to effectively relieve the supply pressure in the short term. [4] - Although there are issues with chicken diseases affecting egg production, it is expected that the increasing trend of egg supply in the future will not change. [4] - In terms of consumption, the low vegetable prices are a negative factor. However, as the egg price continues to fall, there are more egg promotions in other industries, increasing egg consumption. At the same time, the willingness to store eggs in cold storage has increased at low prices, providing short - term support for the egg price. [4] - It is expected that the short - term decline of egg prices will slow down, but the medium - term supply and demand of eggs will remain loose. Therefore, it is recommended to short at high prices. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - Price: The average price of pink eggs was 2.80 yuan per catty, down 0.12 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 4.1%. The average price of red eggs was 2.83 yuan per catty, down 0.15 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 5.0%. The price difference between red and pink eggs was 0.03 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 51.5%. [3][4] - Basis: The 06 basis was - 26 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 174 yuan from the previous period. The 09 basis was - 887 yuan per 501 kilograms, down 199 yuan from the previous period. The spot price dropped significantly this week, and the basis weakened. Currently, the futures have a premium over the spot. [4] - Spread: The 6 - 7 spread was - 129 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 2 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 1.5%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 732 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 27 yuan from the previous period. The short - term weakness of the spot and the potential increase in future supply pressure suppress the near - month contracts, while the far - month contracts are supported by the logic of production capacity reduction and feed price increase. Therefore, the reverse spread logic of shorting near - month and longing far - month contracts still exists. [4] - Strategy: For the 06 - 10 contracts, maintain the idea of shorting at high prices and pay attention to the rhythm. Pay attention to the reverse spread of shorting the 7 - month contract and longing the 9 - month contract. [4] 3.2 Egg Spot and Futures Price Data - The report presents historical data on the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the price difference between different types of eggs, and the basis and spread of different egg futures contracts from 2020 to 2025 [8][11][13] 3.3 Egg Supply - Side Data - Laying Hens' Situation: The in - production inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion from the previous period, an increase of 0.8%. At the end of April, it increased by 6.7% year - on - year. The egg - laying rate was 91.27%, down 0.17 percentage points from the previous period, a decrease of 0.19%. [3] - Elimination Situation: The price of eliminated chickens was 5.15 yuan per catty, down 0.07 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 1.28%. The number of eliminated chickens was 17.25 million, an increase of 0.67 million from the previous period, an increase of 4.1%. The average age of eliminated chickens was 535 days, down 1 day from the previous period. [3] - Chick Situation: The price of laying hen chicks was 4.14 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.2%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 97%, down 2 percentage points from the previous period. The monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises was 45.975 million, down 0.35 million from the previous period, a decrease of 0.8%. [3] - Inventory Situation: The production inventory was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous period, an increase of 1.7%. The circulation inventory was 1.32 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous period, an increase of 2.3%. The number of trucks arriving in the sales areas remained high. [3] 3.4 Egg Production Cost and Profit - Cost: The feed cost of eggs was 2.78 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.2%. The comprehensive cost of eggs was 3.33 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.8%. The cost of raising chickens was 34.09 yuan per chicken, up 0.05 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.1%. [3] - Profit: The comprehensive profit of egg production was - 0.55 yuan per unit, down 0.25 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 81.7%. [3] 3.5 Egg Consumption - Side Data - The sales volume of representative cities nationwide was 8591.6 tons, down 224.4 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 2.5%. The shipment volume of sample production areas was 565.83 tons, down 1.5 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.3%. [3]