尿素周报：尿素出口基本得以确认保供稳价依旧是国内市场重点-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that urea exports are basically confirmed, and ensuring supply and stabilizing prices remain the focus of the domestic market. The urea futures market is mainly driven by export expectations. The domestic policy aims to maintain supply and price stability, and if there are price fluctuations, the government will intervene. This is unfavorable for urea futures bulls, and it is expected that urea futures will reflect the policy intention [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - Domestic Urea Spot Prices: The report presents historical price trends of urea in different regions of China, including Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 to 2025 [8][9]. - International Urea Prices and Spreads: It shows historical price trends of small - particle urea FOB prices in China and the Middle East, as well as the profit of Shandong factories for port collection and the spread between the Middle East and Shandong factory port collection costs from 2021 to 2025 [11][12]. - Unit Nitrogen Element Prices and Spreads: The report provides historical price trends of synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spreads between liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride from 2021 to 2025 [14][15]. - Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices: It shows historical price trends of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 to 2025 [17][18]. - Urea Futures Basis and Inter - month Spreads: The report presents historical price trends of the urea futures 09 contract, its basis, and the 9 - 1 spread from 2021 to 2025 [20][21]. 3.2 Urea Supply - Domestic Urea Production: The weekly average daily production of urea has been increasing, reaching 20.43 tons in the week of May 22 - 28, 2025. There were changes in the number of parking and resuming enterprises, and 5 enterprises were planned to be under maintenance and 1 was expected to resume production in the current week. The report also shows historical data on the weekly average daily production, cumulative production, and production by raw material (natural gas and coal) from 2021 to 2025 [5][25][26]. - Coal Prices and Urea Profits: The price of anthracite is stable, and the fixed - bed process production cost in Shanxi is 1480 yuan/ton. The profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi is 410 yuan/ton, and it is expected that prices will remain stable [5][28][29]. - Urea Factory Inventory and Apparent Consumption: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.56 tons, a decrease of 12.61 tons (- 10.58%) compared to the previous period. The report also shows historical data on enterprise inventory, apparent consumption, order volume, and domestic apparent consumption from 2021 to 2025 [5][31][32]. 3.3 Urea Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.90%, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to increase steadily. The report also shows historical data on the compound fertilizer enterprise's start - up rate, inventory, import, export, and net export from 2021 to 2025 [5][36][37]. - Compound Fertilizer Upstream: For phosphate fertilizers, it shows historical data on the weekly production, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate from 2021 to 2025. For potassium fertilizers, it shows historical data on the domestic start - up rate, port inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume from 2021 to 2025 [38][39][42]. - Melamine: The report shows historical data on the weekly production, price, ratio to urea, and domestic net retention volume of melamine from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - Urea Export: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative export volume of urea from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. 3.4 Urea Inventory The report shows historical data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, the sum of enterprise and port inventory, and urea warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [49][50].