关注中美贸易谈判，短期震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term tin prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term sentiment boost from Sino - US negotiations, while the news of Wa State's resumption of production and the risk of weakening demand on the margin will exert pressure [2][56]. Summary by Directory 1. When - week Macro Data/Events - From May 12th to May 16th, there are multiple important economic data releases and speeches from central bank officials, including Japan's April economic observer outlook index, the eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index, and US inflation data for April [4]. 2. Tin Concentrate: Pay Attention to the News of Wa State's Resumption of Production - From May 6th to May 9th, the processing fees of tin concentrate remained unchanged compared with last week. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,700 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi and Hunan was 8,700 yuan/ton [6]. - In March, the total import volume of tin concentrate was 8,323 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. The import volume from Myanmar dropped significantly by 87% to 2,252 tons, while that from Congo (Kinshasa) was 2,439 tons (2,551 tons in the same period last year), and the import from Australia decreased slightly to 1,084 tons (1,188 tons last year) [6]. 3. Refined Tin: Low Smelter Operating Rate, Import Window Opened and then Closed - From May 6th to May 9th, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 57.16%, remaining at a low level due to raw material shortages, far lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2024 [9]. - In March, the import volume of tin ingots was 2,101 tons, a year - on - year increase of 147%, reaching a historical high for the same period. From May 6th to May 9th, the import profit and loss fluctuated between - 4,545 and 1,134 yuan, and the import window opened. In March, Indonesia exported 8,780 tons of refined tin, a 50% increase compared with the same period last year [10]. 4. Tin Solder - In March 2025, the overall sample operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises rebounded to 75.81%, showing significant improvement compared with February [17]. - As of February 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global semiconductor sales was 17.1%, remaining at a high level. On May 2nd, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached 4,397 points, showing a recent rebound. In March, China's semiconductor production was 41.97 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, and the export of integrated circuits was 28.797 billion, a year - on - year increase of 25.12% [25]. - In March, the production of mobile phones was 137 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; the production of computers was 3.212 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; and the production of optoelectronic devices was 163.9 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Attention should be paid to the impact of AI concepts and policies on consumer electronics consumption [26]. - In March, the domestic production of photovoltaic cells was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%, and the export volume of photovoltaic modules was 954 million, a year - on - year increase of 85%. As of May 9th, the operating rate of domestic photovoltaic glass was 70.34%, a slight increase of 0.9%, and the inventory turnover days of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 26.68 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.18% [33][34]. 5. Tin Chemicals - As of May 9th, the weekly operating rate of PVC rebounded to 80.34%, a 1.01% increase from last week. The weekly profit of the ethylene method was - 652 yuan/ton, and that of the calcium carbide method was - 705 yuan/ton, with production profits remaining in a large - scale loss [39]. - As of May 11th, the number of property transactions in 30 cities was 12,718, showing a seasonal decline and a significant year - on - year decline compared with 20,706 in the same period last year. From January to March, the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.13705 billion square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.5%, and the cumulative value of real estate completion area in March was 130.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.3% [39]. 6. Inventory: Weekly Social Inventory Increased after Decreasing - From May 2nd to May 9th, the social inventory of tin ingots increased by 360 tons to 10,193 tons, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 143 tons to 8,402 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 2,705 tons [47]. 7. Shanghai Tin: Pay Attention to Sino - US Trade Negotiations, Short - term Fluctuation - From May 6th to May 9th, the weighted open interest of Shanghai tin increased from 53,905 lots to 57,275 lots. Tin prices fluctuated, and the open interest increased slightly [54].