高频数据跟踪：生产延续回落，物价走势分化

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: May 12, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that production heat is in a downward trend due to holidays, with chemical and tire开工率 at seasonal lows, while blast furnace and asphalt开工率 have increased. Second, the commercial housing transaction area has declined, and the land transaction area has continued to rise, both close to last - year's levels. Third, price trends are divergent, with crude oil prices rising from a low level, coking coal and rebar prices falling, and copper prices relatively stable; agricultural products generally continue the seasonal downward trend, with a large increase in fruit prices. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the trend of commodity prices [2][30] Section Summaries Production - Steel: The coking oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.38 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.29 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 9.85 tons. The inventory increased by 15.11 tons [3][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The开工率 increased by 0.5 pct [3][9] - Chemical Industry: The PX开工率 increased slightly by 0.81 pct at a low level, and the PTA开工率 decreased significantly by 4.65 pct [3][9] - Automobile Tires: The开工率 decreased seasonally and significantly, with the all - steel tire开工率 decreasing by 11.47 pct and the semi - steel tire开工率 decreasing by 14.08 pct [3][10] Demand - Real Estate: The commercial housing transaction area declined, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased; the land transaction area continued to rise, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased [13] - Movie Box Office: It increased by 559 million yuan compared with the previous week [13] - Automobile: In the week of April 30, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 63,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 119,000 vehicles [16] - Shipping Index: The SCFI increased by 0.32%, the CCFI decreased by 1.31%, and the BDI decreased by 8.59% [18] Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price increased by 4.27% to $63.91 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreased by 4.74% to 883.5 yuan per ton [20] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by + 0.15%, - 0.58%, and + 1.76% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 1.94% [21] - Agricultural Products: They continued the seasonal downward trend, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreasing by 1.14%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by + 0.15%, - 0.87%, + 0.23%, and + 5.53% respectively compared with the previous week [23][24] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: The passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai both decreased [26] - Flight Execution Volume: Both domestic and international flight volumes decreased [27] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased overall [27]