贵金属日评：印巴与俄乌有意进行停火谈判，关注中美关税谈判的具体成果-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The delay of the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts, along with the successive interest rate cuts by central banks in Europe, the UK, and other countries, has strengthened the US dollar index. The easing of geopolitical conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and India-Pakistan may lead to a short - term adjustment in precious metal prices. However, the expected slowdown of the US economic growth, the future interest rate cut expectations of the Fed, and the continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks may cause precious metal prices to fluctuate and strengthen in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to focus on the arbitrage opportunity of short - term, light - position, high - level shorting of the "gold - silver ratio" [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Gold: The closing price of Shanghai gold was 779.50 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.23 compared to the previous value. The trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T + D was - 32,282.00, and the holding volume was 216,404.00. The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3248.30 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 18.70 compared to the previous value. The London gold spot price was 3324.55 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 27.75 compared to the previous value [2]. - Silver: The closing price of Shanghai silver was 8100.00 yuan/kg, with a change of - 13.00 compared to the previous value. The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was - 199,344.00, and the holding volume was 3,499,912.00. The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 32.65 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.28 compared to the previous value. The London silver spot price was 32.43 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.09 compared to the previous value [2]. - Other Commodities and Financial Indicators: The price of INE crude oil was 461.00 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 63.88 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.98 US dollars/barrel. The Shanghai inter - bank offered rate SHIBOR overnight was 1.50%, and the one - year rate was 1.71%. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.3700%, and the TIPS yield was 2.0800%. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding price changes [2]. Important Information - Geopolitical: After the India - Pakistan cease - fire, there were explosions in the India - controlled Kashmir region. Ukraine plans to have an unconditional cease - fire for at least 30 days, and Putin proposed to resume Russia - Ukraine negotiations on May 15. Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready for talks with Russia. The US and China agreed to establish an economic and trade consultation mechanism and will release a joint statement on May 12. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reiterated "zero tariffs" and demanded the US to completely cancel automobile tariffs [2]. - Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted between August and October, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by 163 billion US dollars. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January. Different central banks have different future interest - rate adjustment expectations based on their respective economic data [2]. Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the arbitrage opportunity of short - term, light - position, high - level shorting of the "gold - silver ratio". For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 750 - 770 and the resistance level around 850 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 and the resistance level around 35 - 36; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7400 - 7800/8000 and the resistance level around 8600 - 8900 [2].