海外宏观周报：市场静待贸易靴子落地-20250512

Group 1: Trade Relations - The US and UK reached a limited agreement to lower tariffs on certain products, but a 10% base tariff remains in place, indicating long-term challenges for tariff reductions with other countries[1] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet reported "substantial progress" in trade talks with China, with further details expected to be announced[2] - President Trump expressed willingness to reduce tariffs on China by up to 80% prior to the Geneva meetings, highlighting a potential shift in trade policy[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US services PMI rose to 51.6 in April, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, indicating mixed economic signals[10] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, aligning with market expectations, and is likely to remain cautious in the face of uncertain trade policies[2] - Market pricing suggests there may be three more interest rate cuts within the year, reflecting ongoing economic concerns[31] Group 3: Risks and Outlook - The ongoing trade negotiations are subject to fluctuations, posing risks to market stability[3] - The Fed's current stance is to wait for actual economic data to weaken before making further adjustments to monetary policy, indicating a cautious approach[2] - The potential for a rebound in risk assets is tempered by the possibility of a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario in the stock market[2]