有色金属周报（锌）：短期反弹或为空配入场机会-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment is generally stable and positive with eased trade frictions and expected domestic monetary policies. The raw material supply is expected to be loose, and the TC increase space in May is limited. The zinc price is expected to be weak, ranging from 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. If the zinc price rebounds with the macro - sentiment, short positions can be considered. Continuous attention should be paid to the macro and downstream consumption situations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.87% to 22,700 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price dropped by 1.60% to 22,190 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose by 2.95% to 2,653.5 dollars/ton [15]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate Situation - Port Inventory: As of May 9, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 130,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons [28]. - Profit: As of May 8, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,774 yuan/metal ton. In March, the zinc concentrate import volume was 359,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.09% and a year - on - year increase of 47.16% [35]. - TC: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased slightly. As of May 9, the average import TC was 40 dollars/dry ton, and the average domestic TC was 3,500 yuan/metal ton [3]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Situation - Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises fluctuated slightly. As of May 8, the production profit was - 494 yuan/ton. In April, the output increased to 555,400 tons. In May, the output is expected to remain stable [43]. - Import: The Shanghai - London ratio rose, and the import profit window opened. As of May 9, the import profit of refined zinc was 66.05 yuan/ton. From January to March 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 1.01 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43,000 tons [47]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Situation - Galvanizing: The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 11.26 percentage points to 60.87%. The raw material and finished product inventories decreased. Terminal orders from special - high - voltage projects were released, but export orders decreased due to tariff uncertainties [55][58]. - Die - Casting Zinc Alloy: The price of zinc alloy declined. The operating rate increased by 5.59 percentage points to 54.6%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. Electronic product orders were okay, but traditional hardware and export orders were weak [66][70][73]. - Zinc Oxide: The price of zinc oxide decreased. The operating rate increased by 1.16 percentage points to 59.73%. The raw material and finished product inventories decreased. Rubber - grade and feed - grade orders weakened, ceramic - grade orders were stable, and export was uncertain due to anti - dumping investigations [81][84][87]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - Social Inventory: As of May 8, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 72,300 tons, an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease [94]. - Exchange Inventory: As of May 9, the SHFE inventory was 47,100 tons, a decrease. The LME inventory was 170,300 tons, a decrease [97]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from January 2024 to March 2025, with some months in short supply and others in surplus [98].