高盛：亚洲股票观点-涨幅过大、过快

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook with a moderate return expectation of -4% over 3 months and +4% over 12 months for the MXAPJ index, with updated targets of 570, 595, and 620 for 3, 6, and 12 months respectively [28][41]. Core Insights - The MXAPJ index has rebounded 16% since its April low, recovering from a 15% decline earlier in the year, indicating a strong recovery trend across Asian equity markets [2][3]. - The earnings growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 7% and 8% respectively, which is below consensus estimates of 10% and 11%, reflecting a subdued earnings outlook [19][21]. - Market pricing appears complacent, with the MXAPJ index's performance exceeding macro-modelled returns, suggesting a lack of consideration for geopolitical risks [21][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The MXAPJ index has fully recovered from its early April plunge and is near year-to-date highs, with most Asian markets showing similar recovery patterns [2][3]. - The report notes that markets that experienced the largest declines have tended to recover more sharply [6]. Rally Drivers - Key factors driving the recent equity market rebound include increased expectations around trade deals, moderated stress measures, a weaker US dollar, and signs of renewed foreign investment in emerging Asia [8][19]. Earnings Outlook - The earnings outlook remains subdued, with the report highlighting potential risks from trade dislocations and softer global demand, as indicated by weak survey data [19][21]. - The report's earnings revision lead indicator suggests further downgrades to consensus profit forecasts, reflecting negative corporate sentiment [23]. Market Pricing and Valuation - Current market pricing is viewed as complacent, with the MXAPJ index's forward P/E returning to mid-range levels without adequate allowance for geopolitical risks [21][31]. - The report indicates that the forward 12-month P/E is at 13.3x, aligning with historical averages but suggesting potential overvaluation given the earnings growth outlook [21][31]. Scenario Analysis - The report presents upside and downside scenario analyses, indicating potential for +6 percentage points upside and -23 percentage points downside relative to the baseline return of +4% over 12 months [34][37]. Allocation Strategy - The report recommends maintaining a domestic and defensive allocation stance, favoring China and Japan while underweighting Australia and Taiwan, with a focus on internet and defensive sectors over commodities and global cyclicals [40][41]. Key Themes - The report identifies several key themes, including resilience in a challenging macro environment, support from Chinese policy, and opportunities in AI and shareholder yield [43].