Guohai Securities·2025-05-12 09:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The computer industry is showing signs of recovery as unfavorable factors from 2024 have been fully released, with overall revenue expected to improve due to increasing demand and efficiency brought by AI [6][8] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards high-end processors, servers, and liquid cooling, with revenue growth rates between 20% to 45% for these segments [7][45] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a significant year-on-year recovery in revenue and profit, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [8][53] Summary by Sections 2024 Industry Performance - Total revenue for the computer industry in 2024 reached 12,548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, while net profit was 192.96 billion yuan, down 45.18% [24] - The overall gross margin was 25.36%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 1.54%, down 1.42 percentage points [31] - The total number of employees in the industry was 1.1692 million, a slight decrease of 0.79% year-on-year, with an average revenue per employee of 1.0585 million yuan, up 5.90% [39] 2025 Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the computer industry reported total revenue of 2,836.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.65%, and net profit of 25.79 billion yuan, up 160.33% [53] - The number of companies with positive profit growth increased, while those in negative growth decreased, indicating a stabilization in profitability [8][53] Segment Analysis - High-end processors, servers, and liquid cooling segments are experiencing robust revenue growth, while the IDC sector shows stable growth despite a slowdown [7][45] - The basic software and SaaS sectors are expected to reach a performance turning point, while the industrial software and intelligent driving sectors maintain strong growth [51]