Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-12 09:00Report Information - Report Date: May 12, 2025 [1] - Writer: Wang Fuhui [2] - Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of oversupply and inventory accumulation, but the supply growth rate may slow down due to production cuts [2] - The option market shows a bullish sentiment, with the call position dominant and the implied volatility slightly increasing [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the DIF crossing above the DEA below the 0 - axis, and the red bar expanding [2] - The recommended operation is to lightly go long on dips and control risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,040 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 23,005 lots, down 924 lots [2] - The main contract's open interest is 284,312 lots, down 5,991 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 960 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 36,351 lots, up 110 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,600 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 62,950 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [2] - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 560 yuan/ton, down 1,670 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 766 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,425 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - The price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,855 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 43,180 tons, up 7,490 tons; the monthly import volume is 18,125.49 tons, up 5,797.53 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 50%, up 8% [2] - The monthly production of power batteries is 118,300 MWh, up 18,000 MWh [2] - The price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan [2] - The price of lithium cobaltate is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 - type) in China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of ternary material (622 - power type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (523 - single - crystal type) in China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 48%, up 8%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is 57%, unchanged [2] - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,277,000, up 389,000; the monthly sales are 1,237,000, up 345,000 [2] - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.16%, up 0.85%; the cumulative sales are 3,075,000, up 985,000 [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 158,000, up 27,000; the cumulative export volume is 441,000, up 134,000 [2] - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 17.36%, up 1.77%; the 40 - day average volatility is 16.54%, up 0.74% [2] Option Situation - The total call position is 167,386 lots, up 12,616; the total put position is 61,762 lots, up 4,938 [2] - The put - call ratio of the total position is 36.9%, up 0.1828%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.26%, up 0.0062% [2] Industry News - In April, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 2.23 million and 1.755 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.2% and 14.5%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.151 million and 0.905 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 40.3% and 33.9% [2] - From January to April, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 8.544 million and 6.872 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.7% and 7.9%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 4.078 million and 3.324 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 44.5% and 35.7% [2] - In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.755 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, at a historically high level for April. The export of new energy passenger cars was 189,000, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [2] - Chinese self - owned brand cars are not affected by US tariff increases, and the pressure on export reduction is not significant [2] - Due to the good market growth, the competition pressure in the auto industry has decreased significantly, and the number of price - cut models has decreased. The market has recovered, and the price war pressure has been relatively alleviated [2] - The Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved substantial progress, with both sides reducing tariffs [2]