有色及新能源周报：市场情绪趋于谨慎，有色板块震荡运行-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The market sentiment is cautious, and the non - ferrous metals sector is oscillating. For copper, although there are some positive trade news, the upward momentum of copper prices is weak after a recent rebound. For zinc, the long - term bearish logic remains, and zinc prices are under pressure in the short term. For nickel, it is expected to be strong in the short term, but there is still pressure of supply surplus in the long term [8][88][206]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Non - ferrous Metals Price Monitoring - Various non - ferrous metals have different price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 100.4 with a daily decline of 0.21%, a weekly increase of 0.38%, and an annual decline of 7.43%. Industrial silicon is at 8,205 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.32%, a weekly decline of 3.92%, and an annual decline of 25.31% [5]. 02. Copper (CU) - Influencing Factors and Drives - Macro factors are neutral to bearish due to China's monetary policies, the Fed's stance, and Sino - US talks. The raw material end is bullish as copper mine processing fees decline and port inventories increase. The smelting end is neutral with increased losses for smelters. The demand end is neutral with fluctuating downstream demand. The inventory is bullish as domestic copper inventories decrease [8]. - Price and Market Conditions - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The structural squeeze - out market of Shanghai copper continues, and the import window is opened periodically. The refined copper output is increasing, while the copper rod processing fee is declining, and the copper rod production rate is changing [13][24][52]. - Investment and Trading - The investment view is oscillating to bearish. The trading strategy is to be short - term bearish for unilateral trading and no arbitrage [8]. 03. Zinc (ZN) - Influencing Factors and Drives - Macro factors are bearish considering China's trade data, the Fed's decision, and domestic policies. The raw material end is neutral with changes in processing fees and inventory. The smelting end is neutral with a slight reduction in supply. The demand end is bearish as downstream demand is weak. The inventory is bullish as the social inventory increase during the festival is limited [88]. - Price and Market Conditions - Zinc prices are weakening due to the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations. The domestic processing fee is increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the refined zinc import window is opened [90][106]. - Investment and Trading - The investment view is oscillating. The trading strategy is to be bearish for unilateral trading and wait - and - see for arbitrage [88]. 04. Nickel (NI) - Influencing Factors and Drives - Macro factors are neutral with China's policies and the Fed's stance. The raw material end is bullish with the impact of policies and inventory changes. The smelting end is neutral with different production situations of various nickel products. The demand end is neutral to bearish as stainless steel production is reduced and the new - energy demand has its own characteristics. The inventory is neutral with a slight decline [206]. - Price and Market Conditions - The news of the Philippines' potential nickel - mining ban has affected the market, and nickel prices rose sharply on Friday night. Nickel - iron prices have dropped significantly, and the prices of other related products also have certain changes [208][225]. - Investment and Trading - The investment view is short - term bullish. The trading strategy is to conduct short - term range trading for unilateral trading and go long on nickel and short on stainless steel for arbitrage [206].