宏观经济专题研究：对美出口损失背景下的中国GDP增速预测

Export Impact on China's Economy - Exports account for approximately 20% of China's total economic impact, with consumption and investment each also at around 40%[1] - In 2024, China's exports to the US were valued at $524.66 billion, representing about 14.7% of total exports[11] GDP Growth Forecasts for 2025 - In an extreme scenario where exports to the US drop to zero, China's GDP could decline by approximately 3.0 percentage points, resulting in a growth rate of about 2.4%[15] - In a non-extreme but pessimistic scenario, a 68.8% drop in exports could lead to a GDP decline of about 2.0 percentage points, yielding a growth rate of around 3.4%[16] - Under a neutral scenario, a 50% drop in exports would result in a GDP decline of about 1.5 percentage points, leading to a growth rate of approximately 3.9%[16] Government Fiscal Measures - The Chinese government plans to increase its fiscal deficit by 2.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with 1.1 trillion yuan aimed at countering external uncertainties, equivalent to 0.8% of 2024's GDP[19] - This fiscal expansion is expected to offset a potential 0.8 percentage point decline in economic growth due to external factors[19] Trade Relations and Risks - Recent US-China trade talks indicate a potential easing of trade tensions, which may improve the likelihood of achieving a 5.0% economic growth target in 2025[24] - Risks include delayed policy adjustments, overseas market volatility, and uncertainties in transshipment trade[26]