钢矿周度报告2025-05-12：宏观预期降温，黑色震荡下行-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Spot prices continued to decline, and the market was weak. Supply showed high blast - furnace production and continuous reduction in electric - furnace output. Inventories of building materials and plates were both accumulating. Demand for building materials had a slower growth rate, and plate demand was weak domestically but strong externally. Profits of blast - furnaces expanded, while losses of electric - furnaces increased. The basis widened slightly. Overall, the supply - demand structure of building materials and plates weakened last week, and there was a risk of early inventory accumulation for building materials. The strategy was to maintain a bearish view and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [7]. Iron Ore - Ore prices rose slightly, but the market was still weak. Supply from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also decreased. Demand exceeded expectations due to increased blast - furnace production. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices dropped. The overall supply - demand situation in the industry remained weak, and the market was dragged down by the falling prices of steel products. The strategy was to continuously monitor the opportunity for a supplementary decline when hot - metal production peaked, and in the short - term, a small number of short positions could be established, adding positions on rebounds and holding them in the medium - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar prices continued to fall. The 10 - contract dropped 74 to 3022, and spot prices also weakened. The rebar in East China was reported at 3170 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 30 yuan. The overall trading volume was light [14]. 1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The average daily hot - metal output was 245.64 tons, a weekly increase of 0.22 tons. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnaces decreased by 0.20 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, and hot - rolled production increased by 1.08 tons [17][24][27]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, from May 1st to May 7th, the national cement delivery volume decreased by 6.0% week - on - week and 22.5% year - on - year. The actual steel procurement volume in April was 566 tons, 4.1% less than the expected volume. The planned steel procurement volume in May was 605 tons, and the actual volume was expected to increase by about 4% month - on - month. For plates, domestic manufacturing demand declined significantly, while exports in April reached a new high [30][33]. 1.4 Profit - The profitability rate of blast - furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 91 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit decreased by 13 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, factory inventories increased by 15.11 tons, and social inventories in most regions except East and South China decreased. For hot - rolled coils, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased in most regions [41][44]. 1.6 Basis - The current basis of rebar 10 was 128, 24 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on the previous long - basis positions around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [50]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 15, 11 less inverted than last week. The current inversion situation was difficult to reverse completely, so no action was recommended [54]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 135, 27 wider than last week. The spot spread was 50, 10 wider than last week. There was no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing, so no action was recommended [57]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices continued to fall. The 09 - contract dropped 7.5 to 696, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped 3 to 758 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was weak, and port trading was poor [62]. 2.2 Supply - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2540.4 tons, a decrease of 217.9 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased by 45.2 tons week - on - week [65][71]. 2.3 Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased to 245.64 tons per day. After the May Day restocking ended, the market purchasing sentiment weakened, but the actual restocking situation was still good due to high hot - metal production and low steel mill inventories [74][78]. 2.4 Inventory - The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 84 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 91.43 tons [81][84]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping price from Western Australia to China was 7.55 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to China was 18.43 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 dollars/ton week - on - week [87]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26, 1.5 higher than last week, and the overall spread structure was flat. The 09 - contract discount was 78, at a relatively high level. The coking - ore ratio dropped significantly, and the rebar - ore ratio changed little. There was no obvious direction for spread trading [89][92].