Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market was mainly in a downward trend last week. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils diverged, and the inventories of both increased. The demand for hot-rolled coils is likely to continue to weaken in May, and the demand for rebar has declined significantly after reaching its peak. There is an expectation of a continuous decline in steel demand. [3][6] - The supply and demand of steel have a tendency to weaken marginally. The supply of steel decreased last week, with a decline in rebar production and a slight increase in hot-rolled coil production. The apparent demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased, and the total steel inventory increased. [3][4] - The iron ore supply and demand are balanced, but the weakening of the steel supply and demand at the current stage will be transmitted to the raw material end. The market may continue to fluctuate repeatedly under the influence of raw material price costs and demand expectations. [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - At the beginning of the week (20250506 - 20250509), rebar and hot-rolled coils fluctuated, and the raw material iron ore was strong. However, towards the end of the week, the weekly data of the black series was poor, and the whole market turned weak. [3] - The iron ore supply and demand were good, but the export expectation of hot-rolled coils continued to weaken, and the demand for building materials declined significantly. The steel market had high supply and weakening marginal demand, leading to a price decline. [3] - The weekly production of rebar decreased by 9.85 tons, while the production of hot-rolled coils increased by 1.08 tons. The total steel inventory increased, and the trend of continuous inventory reduction may end. [3] - Last week, the rebar 2510 contract decreased by 74 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%; the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract decreased by 47 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.47%; and the iron ore 2509 contract decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.07%. [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The steel supply decreased last week, with a decline in rebar production and a slight increase in hot-rolled coil production. The apparent demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased, and the total steel inventory increased. [4][5] - The weekly production of rebar was 223.53 tons, a decrease of 9.85 tons. The demand for building materials decreased significantly, and the total inventory increased. [4] - The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 320.38 tons, an increase of 1.08 tons. The weekly supply of hot-rolled coils increased again. [4][5] - The weekly production of the five major steel products was 874.17 tons, a decrease of 9.52 tons compared to the previous week. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1476.07 tons, an increase of 28.97 tons compared to the previous week. [5] - The steel consumption last week was 845.2 tons, a decrease of 125.66 tons compared to the previous week. [5] Market Outlook - The steel market is likely to continue to fluctuate under the influence of raw material price costs and demand expectations. The demand for hot-rolled coils is likely to continue to weaken in May, and the demand for rebar has declined significantly after reaching its peak. [6] - The supply and demand of steel have a tendency to weaken marginally, and this will be transmitted to the raw material end. [6]
国金期货螺纹热卷周报-20250512
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-05-12 09:39