Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-12 09:35Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to temporarily observe the polysilicon market [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable. Supply has significantly declined as over half of the enterprises in the industry are conducting device maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia. Demand is weak, with downstream enterprises, particularly crystal - pulling companies, showing a strong wait - and - see attitude and low purchasing willingness. The industry's inventory pressure remains high, mainly concentrated in polysilicon manufacturers, and the inventory digestion speed has slowed down. Technically, trading volume continues to expand, a phased bottom has emerged, and the short - term price repair momentum has increased [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 38,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 620 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 67,504 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 248 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 2,305 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 800 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 30,130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 505 yuan/ton [3] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, and the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 35 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.34 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 US dollars/kg. The basis of polysilicon is 2,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 620 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,320 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 115 yuan/ton; the spot price is 9,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 46,400 tons; the total social inventory is 596,000 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 7,000 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The monthly import volume of polysilicon is 2,906 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 7.8444 million kilowatts, with a month - on - month increase of 1.1443 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,122,260 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/piece, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.91, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 [3] Industry News - As of May 9, the mainstream market price of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon is 32 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type dense - type polysilicon is 35.5 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 39 yuan/kg, and the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 37 yuan/kg, all of which are temporarily stable. The National Development and Reform Commission will launch high - quality projects with a total investment scale of about 3 trillion yuan this year [3]