利率债周报：降息降准落地，长债利好出尽，收益率曲线走陡-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the yield of long - term bonds increased slightly, and the yield curve steepened. Factors such as positive May Day holiday consumption data, rising expectations of Sino - US trade war easing, and better - than - expected April import and export data, along with the full pricing of loose monetary policy in long - term bonds before, led to the increase in long - term bond yields. The short - end interest rates decreased significantly due to the implementation of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts and the overall loose funding situation [1]. - This week (the week of May 12), the bond market is expected to continue the volatile pattern. The better - than - expected April import and export data had a certain negative impact on the bond market, but subsequent tariff impacts will be more evident, and the weak price data and less - than - expected April financial data support the bond market. The implementation of the reserve requirement ratio cut on Thursday will inject about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the banking system, and a new round of large - scale banks will lower deposit interest rates. The resumption of treasury bond trading operations is also expected to open up the downward space for the short - end and gradually transmit to the medium - and long - end. However, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the recovery of risk appetite will have a negative impact on the long - end bond yields. Overall, the 10 - year treasury bond yield will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, may rise slightly, the short - end interest rates will further decline, and the yield curve is expected to continue to steepen [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Two - week Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market was volatile, and the yield of long - term bonds increased slightly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.01% for the whole week. The 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 1.08bp compared with the previous Wednesday, and the 1 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 4.05bp, with the term spread widening significantly [2]. - From April 28 to May 9, the bond market showed different trends on each trading day due to various factors such as policy announcements, economic data releases, and trade negotiations. For example, on May 7, long - term bond yields increased due to Sino - US trade negotiations and the less - than - expected scale of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, while short - term bond yields decreased significantly [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 50 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 18 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 578.6 billion yuan, an increase of 443.5 billion yuan, and the net financing was 235.3 billion yuan, an increase of 100.6 billion yuan. The issuance volumes of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds all increased compared with the previous week. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased [10]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was generally acceptable. Among them, the average subscription multiple of treasury bonds (excluding 2 certificate - type treasury bonds) was 3.06 times, that of policy - financial bonds was 3.99 times, and that of local bonds was 26.38 times [11]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - The official manufacturing PMI in April decreased significantly. The manufacturing PMI index in April was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from March, mainly due to the US tariff increase and seasonal factors. The non - manufacturing business activity index also declined [11][13]. - The CPI in April continued to be at a low level. The CPI in April decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, a larger decline than the previous month. The current domestic price level is stable and weak, providing space for expanding consumption [13]. - The impact of the tariff war in April began to show, but the intensity was lower than expected. The export volume in April increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth, mainly due to the decline in exports to the US. The import volume decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline, mainly driven by the increase in imports from non - US economies. In the future, May's import and export may be negatively affected [13][14]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Last week, the high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The blast furnace operating rate and daily hot metal output continued to rise, while the operating rates of petroleum asphalt plants and semi - steel tire plants decreased. On the demand side, the BDI index and the export container freight rate index CCFI both decreased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline [15]. - In terms of prices, the pork price continued to rise slightly, and most commodity prices increased. Crude oil and copper prices rose, while the rebar price declined significantly [15]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan [28][29]. - Last week, R007 and DR007 decreased significantly, the issuance interest rate of joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly, the national - share direct - discount interest rates of all terms decreased, the trading volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased significantly [30][31][34].