贸易谈判初见曙光，宏观风险再定价？

Trade Negotiations and Market Reactions - The recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva showed goodwill from both sides, indicating significant progress, which positively impacted market sentiment[5] - Following the announcement, safe-haven assets like gold, yen, and bonds saw price declines, while the Chinese yuan strengthened against other Asian currencies[6] - The Hang Seng Index has largely recovered from tariff impacts, reflecting a shift in investor focus towards more stable sectors[6] Export Data and Economic Indicators - China's overall exports grew by 8.1% in April, significantly exceeding market expectations of around 2%, despite a notable decline in exports to the US[9] - This strong export performance suggests that Chinese companies have prepared well for ongoing trade tensions, with non-US markets showing potential for future growth[9] Inflation and Currency Outlook - The potential trade agreement may lead to adjustments in market pricing of US inflation risks, with overall macroeconomic risks appearing to decrease[9] - The US dollar index may experience mixed performance, as the potential for a trade deal could lead to a decline in dollar asset risks, while emerging market currencies may appreciate[9] Market Trends and Future Focus - The focus remains on the US-China trade negotiations and upcoming US CPI data, with expectations of potential inflationary pressures due to tariffs[10] - Despite high long-term inflation expectations in the US, the overall market risk appetite is not expected to be significantly impacted by inflation data[13]