KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-12 10:06Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7] Core Viewpoints - The hydrogen two-wheeler market is expected to see significant growth driven by policy support, with a projected domestic deployment of nearly 7,000 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of over 230% [4][6] - Hydrogen two-wheelers offer advantages in energy density, range, environmental adaptability, and safety compared to lithium-ion and lead-acid models, making them suitable for B2B applications such as shared mobility and scenic transport [4][24] - The market for hydrogen two-wheelers is projected to grow from 0.9 billion yuan in 2024 to 35 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 84% from 2024 to 2030 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Market Dynamics - National top-level design and local demonstrations are accelerating the deployment of hydrogen two-wheelers, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) setting clear targets for the industry [14][15] - Local governments are issuing supportive policies, with projections for the deployment of 20,000, 30,000, and 40,000 hydrogen two-wheelers by 2026, 2028, and 2030 respectively [19][18] 2. Safety and Economic Viability - Hydrogen two-wheelers are expected to be the first to achieve large-scale deployment in B2B scenarios due to their superior safety features and gradually improving economic viability [20][24] - The cost per kilometer for hydrogen two-wheelers is projected to decrease to 0.1805 yuan, although they currently remain 35% and 13% more expensive than lithium-ion and lead-acid models respectively [4][6] 3. Market Potential and Growth - The shared electric vehicle market has a penetration potential of approximately 7 million units, with hydrogen two-wheelers expected to capture a market share of 10% by 2030 [5][6] - The deployment of hydrogen two-wheelers is anticipated to accelerate in 2025, supported by various local policies and market demand [18][19] 4. Beneficiary Companies - Key beneficiaries in the hydrogen two-wheeler market include: - Yong'an Xing (603776.SH): Leading in hydrogen two-wheeler deployment [6] - Hupu Co., Ltd. (300471.SZ): Holding a 35% stake in hydrogen technology with competitive solid-state hydrogen storage technology [6] - Tianneng Co., Ltd. (688819.SH): Focusing on fuel cell development and partnerships in hydrogen electric bikes [6] - Shenkai Co., Ltd. (002278.SZ): Involved in hydrogen supply systems with growth potential in the two-wheeler sector [6] - Jiangsu Shentong (002438.SZ): Specializing in high-pressure hydrogen valve production with mass production capabilities [6]